“Crude oil edged lower as the market contemplated the outlook for rising OPEC supply,” ANZ analysts said earlier today in a note, as quoted by Reuters. On the other hand, ING analysts noted President Trump’s concession to the EU, which delayed the entry into effect of 50% tariffs to early July in case the two failed to seal a new trade deal. Also on the bullish side, President Trump threatened Russia with more sanctions after intensified strikes on Ukraine that followed a large-scale Ukrainian attack on Russian territory.
First, Jubilee and TEN, where the partners are Tullow, Kosmos, Petro SA, Explorco and GNPC. They have recently announced that they are committed to invest $2billion, to drill up to 20 wells between now and 2040. They are starting the drilling campaign this month with two wells using the Noble Venturer drillship and between four to six wells in 2026.
A European official attending the G7 finance powwow in Banff, Canada, told Reuters that the U.S. Treasury team thinks market forces are already doing the heavy lifting. With Brent prices wobbling around $64—and Russia’s Urals blend clocking in at a $10 discount—Washington’s logic is that there’s no need to poke the bear when the bear’s already limping.
The UK urged its Group of Seven allies to agree a cut to the price cap on Russian oil, saying the move is necessary to put further pressure on President Vladimir Putin to end Russia’s war in Ukraine.
While oil markets have calmed somewhat at the start of this week after a period of intense volatility, developments in either Ukraine or Iran might soon spark another significant move.
U.S. shale production will likely plateau if WTI oil prices remain in the low $60s per barrel, and decline at prices in the $50s, ConocoPhillips chairman and CEO Ryan Lance said at the Qatar Economic Forum on Tuesday.
Wall Street banks are racing this week to slash their oil price forecasts for 2025 and 2026 after OPEC+ threw another curveball at the market this weekend by vowing to continue raising production by more than initially planned.
Commodity strategists and analysts from major U.S. and European investment banks have issued notes with downgraded oil price forecasts for 2025 and 2026 since OPEC+ producers led by Saudi Arabia and Russia agreed on Saturday to raise collective output by 411,000 barrels per day (bpd), nearly triple the volume originally scheduled.
Russia is considering changing its key budget-building mechanism in response to sliding oil revenue, in a sign the Kremlin expects crude prices will remain lower for longer while the war in Ukraine continues to drain state coffers.
Big Oil majors have no plans to scale back their budgets despite oil prices softening and more barrels poised to hit the market. That may sound reckless in a bearish environment, but it’s anything but. With demand picking up in Asia and OPEC+ preparing to unwind production cuts faster than expected, Exxon, Chevron, Shell, and TotalEnergies are digging in—ready to pump more, not less.
The price of crude oil is expected to average $64 per barrel in 2025, the World Bank has revealed in its April 2025 Commodity Markets Outlook.
This is compared with $80.7 per barrel in 2024.
The Bretton Woods institution is forecasting a further drop in the price of crude oil to an average of $60 in 2025.