The United States and Iran are poised to return to the negotiating table at a moment when tensions between the two are high and trust is low.
The talks were initially planned for July 10 in Oslo, according to RFE/RL’s sources, who now say the meeting has been postponed — likely to next week.
Despite energy trade being one of the focal points of trade negotiations between the U.S. and its partners, the dominant perception about the effect of tariffs on oil prices is negative. Most analysts point to the effect of tariffs on the economy of countries being “punished” with them, and, consequently, on oil demand.
The renewed Red Sea volatility comes as Axios reports that Israeli officials believe Donald Trump would authorize pre-emptive military action against Iran’s nuclear program if he returns to office. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is expected to raise the issue during a closed-door dinner with Trump this week. Tehran has restarted centrifuge operations at key enrichment sites, setting off fresh alarm in Tel Aviv.
Goldman Sachs, meanwhile, was quick to predict another oversized OPEC+ output hike in September, at 500,000 barrels daily. The bank issued the prediction on Sunday, saying “Saturday’s announcement to accelerate supply hikes increases our confidence that the shift, which we started flagging last summer, to a more long-run equilibrium focused on normalizing spare capacity and market share, supporting internal cohesion, and strategically disciplining US shale supply, is continuing.”
The total number of active drilling rigs for oil and gas in the United States fell yet again this week, according to new data that Baker Hughes published on Friday, following a 1-rig decrease in the week prior.
Crude oil prices began trading with a loss this week as traders anticipated another OPEC+ supply boost next month at a rate of 411,000 barrels per day, taking the cumulative increase this year to 1.78 million barrels daily, according to preliminary reports.
On Monday June 23, 2025, Iran launched a missile strike on the U.S. Al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar—a retaliatory move following U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities over the weekend. Explosions were reported near Doha, and additional strikes were reported against American assets in Iraq.
Crude oil prices were set to end the week lower than they started it as Israel and Iran stopped bombing each other, alleviating fears of a supply disruption in the Middle East.
“[W]hile Iran has not yet targeted the route, even a limited disruption would severely impact global supply,” Oxford Economics analysts said in a June 20 client note. “In a worst-case scenario, prices could spike to $130 per barrel and shave 0.8 percentage points off global GDP.”
That’s what Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief Commodities Analyst at Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (SEB), said in an oil report sent to Rigzone by the SEB team on Monday. In the report, Schieldrop highlighted that Brent crossed the $80 per barrel line this morning but noted that it “quickly fell back, assigning limited probability for Iran choosing to close the Strait of Hormuz”.