“We have reached a framework to implement the Geneva consensus and the call between the two presidents,” U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said, as quoted by Reuters. “The idea is we’re going to go back and speak to President Trump and make sure he approves it. They’re going to go back and speak to President Xi and make sure he approves it, and if that is approved, we will then implement the framework.”
Saudi Aramco cut the price of its main oil grade to buyers in Asia after OPEC+ continued with its outsized output increases for a third month.
The Saudis led the producer group over the weekend in agreeing to raise production by 411,000 barrels a day in July, a third straight month of outsized hikes. In tandem with US President Donald Trump’s trade war, the supply increases have helped drive benchmark oil prices about 12% lower in London since early April.
When the European Commission started briefing EU states last month on the next sanctions package expected to be imposed on Russia, the 27 member nations expected concrete written proposals to follow. They’re still waiting.
Normally these sorts of documents — in this case the potential 18th round of restrictive measures since the Kremlin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine was launched more three years ago — are provided only a few days after the briefings, or “confessionals” as they are known in Brussels.
OPEC+ did what everyone expected it to do last weekend, announcing another production ramp-up. Prices, however, did something that not everyone expected them to do: they went up. All eyes are now on demand—and the disruption of supply.
It is highly unlikely that anyone with even a modicum of intelligence has lost money in the past ten years or so by trading against the predictable thinking of those in charge of Saudi Arabia’s oil policy. Quite the reverse, in fact, with enormous profits available from the failures of the enormously well-flagged and exceptionally predictable strategy of the 2014-2016 and 2020 Oil Price Wars — launched by the Kingdom with the intention of destroying or disabling the U.S. shale oil sector, as analysed in full in my latest book on the new global oil market order. As OPEC members and their toxic companion in the OPEC+ formation, Russia, mull keeping oil production on the high side of recent historical averages, the key question for the oil markets is — surely they are not going to launch another oil price war using the same strategy as failed twice before?
West Texas Intermediate gained 2.8% to settle near $63 a barrel after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies agreed on Saturday to add 411,000 bpd of supply in July though some members objected, including Russia. With a handful of countries lobbying for a pause in July, banks are now split on how many more hikes will come in subsequent months.
The total number of active drilling rigs for oil and gas in the United States fell yet again this week, according to new data that Baker Hughes published on Friday, following a 10-rig decrease last week, and a 6-rig decrease the week before that.
Crude oil prices are set for another weekly decline following news that OPEC+ was planning to boost production by another 411,000 barrels daily in July. Meanwhile, a court ruling that blocked Trump’s tariffs has been paused after the White House appealed the decision.
Crude briefly flipped to positive earlier in the session after CNN said fresh penalties on Moscow may be announced in the coming days, potentially bolstering the risks to crude supplies in one of the world’s largest producers. US President Donald Trump said he’s considering new sanctions against Russia after large drone attacks on Ukraine in recent days.
The reason for these expectations is the decision by OPEC+ to keep returning supply to the market. OPEC+ is meeting later today and most observers appear to have assumed it will announce yet another monthly hike of 411,000 barrels daily for July. It is this expected hike that, according to the Reuters refining sources, will drive lower prices for Saudi oil.