Goldman Sachs, meanwhile, was quick to predict another oversized OPEC+ output hike in September, at 500,000 barrels daily. The bank issued the prediction on Sunday, saying “Saturday’s announcement to accelerate supply hikes increases our confidence that the shift, which we started flagging last summer, to a more long-run equilibrium focused on normalizing spare capacity and market share, supporting internal cohesion, and strategically disciplining US shale supply, is continuing.”
The total number of active drilling rigs for oil and gas in the United States fell yet again this week, according to new data that Baker Hughes published on Friday, following a 1-rig decrease in the week prior.
Crude oil prices began trading with a loss this week as traders anticipated another OPEC+ supply boost next month at a rate of 411,000 barrels per day, taking the cumulative increase this year to 1.78 million barrels daily, according to preliminary reports.
On Monday June 23, 2025, Iran launched a missile strike on the U.S. Al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar—a retaliatory move following U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities over the weekend. Explosions were reported near Doha, and additional strikes were reported against American assets in Iraq.
Crude oil prices were set to end the week lower than they started it as Israel and Iran stopped bombing each other, alleviating fears of a supply disruption in the Middle East.
“[W]hile Iran has not yet targeted the route, even a limited disruption would severely impact global supply,” Oxford Economics analysts said in a June 20 client note. “In a worst-case scenario, prices could spike to $130 per barrel and shave 0.8 percentage points off global GDP.”
That’s what Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief Commodities Analyst at Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (SEB), said in an oil report sent to Rigzone by the SEB team on Monday. In the report, Schieldrop highlighted that Brent crossed the $80 per barrel line this morning but noted that it “quickly fell back, assigning limited probability for Iran choosing to close the Strait of Hormuz”.
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt read a statement from President Trump saying he’s weighing his options based on the potential for diplomacy with Tehran. The President’s position amounts to maybe peace, maybe war, maybe nothing. In the meantime, Israel has already escalated, bombing Iranian nuclear sites Thursday, and Iran has fired back with drones and missiles following a deadly strike on an Israeli.
Geopolitics could move Brent crude higher by around $10 per barrel, Goldman Sachs has estimated, from a starting point in the mid-$70s. However, the bank admitted oil could top $90 in case of Iranian supply disruption.
Crude oil prices continued higher today as the war between Israel and Iran continued unabated, fuelling worry that oil supply from the biggest exporting region may be under threat of disruption.