Russia’s production drilling averaged more than 2,370 km (7.8 million feet) in January and February, according to the latest available data seen by Bloomberg. That’s higher than the seasonal average for the first three years of the Kremlin’s invasion in Ukraine, which triggered broad restrictions on the availability of western oilfield services in Russia, historical data show.
The current level of drilling activity is also some 30% higher than it was before the war in the Ukraine started, Bloomberg noted, in evidence of the resilience of Russia’s energy industry to Western sanctions. Some of these targeted specifically the oil and gas industry on the assumption that local producers would be crippled if access to Western technology and equipment was cut off.
Russia downgraded its outlook for exports this year and lowered expectations for the price for its oil, developments that may force the government to dip into its wealth fund to cover wartime spending.
The Economy Ministry forecast a 5.3% decline in exports to 410.6 billion rubles ($5 billion), down from an earlier projection of 445 billion rubles, the Interfax news service reported on Monday. The updated macroeconomic outlook also included a lower price for Urals oil of $56 a barrel, versus $69.70 seen earlier.
Unlike oil, the country’s natural gas strategy foresees a big hike in annual production. It targets 853 billion cubic meters by the end of the decade, up by more than a third from 2023. Output in 2050 is seen topping 1 trillion cubic meters, an increase that’s largely down to a ramp-up of liquefied natural gas.
Iran has awarded US$17 billion of contracts to attempt to reverse a dramatic projected production decline from the world’s biggest gas reservoir. Its South Pars field spans 3,700 square kilometres and holds an estimated 14.2 trillion cubic metres (tcm) of gas reserves plus 18 billion barrels of gas condensate. In addition to generating nearly 80% of Iran’s gas production, it also accounts for around 40% of its total estimated 33.8 tcm of gas reserves (mainly located in the southern Fars, Bushehr, and Hormozgan regions).
The Novorossiysk port is a key export route for Russian crude oil and petroleum products and any significant disruptions to loadings may affect the nation’s production flows. However, last month, 23 crude tankers loaded there to carry Russian barrels abroad. All of them loaded at berths 1, 1a or 2, according to vessel tracking data compiled by Bloomberg and shipping industry data.
Russia accounted for 19 percent or 13.4 billion cubic meters (473.22 billion cubic feet) of EU gas imports in the fourth quarter (Q4), according to the European Commission’s quarterly gas market report. Russia’s share of gas imported into the 27-member bloc rose one percentage point from the prior three-month period and two percentage points against Q4 2023.
Russia accounted for 20 percent of gas imported by the EU via pipeline in the third quarter. Norway continued to be the EU’s top pipeline gas supplier with a share of 47 percent, followed by North Africa (16 percent). The United Kingdom was the EU’s fourth-biggest pipeline gas source accounting for 11 percent, while Azerbaijan came fifth with six percent.
A ceasefire to the Russia-Ukraine war could be bearish for oil prices if Trump pushes for the removal of sanctions on the Russian energy industry, Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research, told MarketWatch. Geopolitical stability may also “largely extinguish the still simmering ‘fear bid’ in the oil market.” Sanctions by the Biden administration roughly tripled the number of directly sanctioned Russian crude oil tankers, enough to affect around 900,000 barrels per day (bpd). Whereas it’s highly likely that Russia will try to circumvent the sanctions by employing even more shadow fleet tankers and ship-to-ship transfers, StanChart sees 500,000 bpd of displacements over the next six months.
The commitment was made during Putin’s two-and-a-half-hour phone call with President Trump during which the two discussed the next steps in the Ukraine war. A full 30-day ceasefire, as originally proposed by the U.S. side, was rejected by Russia, which sees it as a means of giving the Ukrainian army a break to rearm. One of Russia’s conditions for a peace agreement is the suspension of all U.S. military aid to the Kyiv government.