Iran’s output, which hit the highest since 2018 last year despite U.S. sanctions, fell by 70,000 bpd, the survey found. It may soon be curbed by tighter sanctions from the administration of incoming U.S. President Donald Trump, Goldman Sachs and other analysts have forecast.
The OPEC+ group is wary that coming deregulation in the U.S. energy sector could boost U.S. oil production higher than forecast under incoming President Donald Trump, OPEC+ delegates have told Reuters.
Central Asia’s largest producer said in August that it was targeting 97.2 million metric tons of oil production in 2025. Since that figure was announced, there has been a major shift in OPEC+ production policy that will see members’ output curtailed for much longer than expected
The United Arab Emirates, a key member of OPEC+, will reduce oil shipments early next year as the alliance seeks stronger discipline in meeting production targets to shore up prices.
OPEC+’s decision to delay a rollback of production cuts agreed last year has rekindled trader interest in the commodity with a view to a tighter supply picture in 2025.
For 2025, global oil demand growth was also revised down slightly by 90,000 bpd from the previous month’s assessment to 1.4 million bpd year-over-year, driven by 100,000 bpd growth in OECD oil demand and 1.3 million bpd growth among non-OECD countries.
Recently, Libya’s oil output hit an 11-year high of over 1.4 million bpd, after recovering from the dip in September due to the field blockades over a row about the leadership of the Central Bank of Libya, the only internationally recognized depository of Libya’s oil revenues.
The new President has long made his dislike well known — privately and/or publicly — of the OPEC organisation, of several Saudi Arabian policies, and of China’s increased influence over both. In Saudi Arabia’s case, this effectively stems from the breaking of the core agreement made between it and the U.S. on 14 February 1945 between the then-U.S. President, Franklin D. Roosevelt, and the then-Saudi King, Abdulaziz bin Abdul Rahman Al Saud.
Crude oil prices have found some support this week, driven by China’s economic recovery and OPEC+ production strategies. China, the world’s second-largest oil consumer, reported its fastest factory activity growth in five months, reinforcing optimism about future crude demand. Analysts view Beijing’s targeted stimulus measures as a potential catalyst for stabilizing global oil markets.
OPEC+ countries agreed to postpone the start of oil production increases by three months until April 2025, simultaneously extending the full unwinding of output cuts by a year until end-2026 as the oil group confronts rising non-OPEC production.