Opec has made a “minor” cut to its global oil demand growth forecast for this year and next, the fifth consecutive monthly downgrade.
The producer group revised its global oil demand growth forecast for 2024 downwards by 210,000 barrels per day to 1.6 million bpd year-on-year in its latest monthly oil market report, released on Tuesday.
For 2025, global oil demand growth was also revised down slightly by 90,000 bpd from the previous month’s assessment to 1.4 million bpd year-over-year, driven by 100,000 bpd growth in OECD oil demand and 1.3 million bpd growth among non-OECD countries.
The latest downgrade comes days after the Opec+ decision to delay the unwinding of production cuts through the first quarter of next year as all eyes turn to policy decisions expected to support US production growth during Donald Trump’s return as US president.
OECD oil demand is expected to grow by around 100,000 bpd in 2024, just half of last month’s forecast, while non-OECD demand this year is forecast to expand by close to 1.5 million bpd, a 200,000 bpd dip on the previous forecast.
“Steady economic growth in China, supported by sustained economic activity in India and other non-OECD consuming countries, are expected to be the major oil demand growth drivers,” in 2024, the producer group said.
Looking ahead to 2025, demand growth will be driven by the Americas, China, India and the Middle East, supported by sustained economic and petrochemical activity which supports demand for transportation fuels and distillates in 2025.
The US view on oil demand growth remains more bullish than Opec, with the Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasting global output of 1.6 million bpd next year 2025, with 90% of growth originating from non-Opec countries, it said on Tuesday.
Source: By Rebecca Conan from upstreamonline.com