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Oil Price Rout Extends on Recession Fears

The price slump in crude oil that began last week has extended into this one as market players’ fears about a global recession deepen.

At the time of writing, Brent crude was trading at just below $64 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate was changing hands for $60.54 per barrel, both down by over 2% from Friday’s close.

Last week, crude oil prices took a 7% dive after China announced retaliatory tariffs for U.S. imports, matching the U.S. rate of 34% on top of existing levies. The move was universally seen as bearish for crude oil, hence the effect on prices.

Oil Rises, but Doubts Dominate

The US is threatening to further tighten the screws on Russia. A group of 50 Republican and Democratic senators introduced a sanctions package that would hit the third-largest oil producer and countries that buy its fuel if President Vladimir Putin refuses to engage in good-faith ceasefire negotiations with Ukraine or if he breaches any eventual agreement.

Saudi Arabia Faces Oil Price Dilemma

As Saudi Arabia pushes ahead with its ambitious Vision 2030 plan to build huge futuristic cities and resorts, the world’s top crude oil exporter will need to borrow more money on the debt markets as oil prices continue to linger at levels of about $20 per barrel lower than the Saudi fiscal breakeven oil price.

Russia’s Central Bank Warns of Prolonged Oil Price Slump

It is quite unsurprising to get such a warning from a central bank that, like other state financial institutions, quite unsurprisingly follows commodity market forecasts. Such behavior is even less surprising from the central bank of one of the world’s largest oil producers. Moreover, Russian budget drafters tend to be conservative in their oil price estimates traditionally, so the central bank is likely to also err on the side of caution. In fact, the bank forecast the average price of Brent crude this year at $60 per barrel in a recent update. That’s down from $68 per barrel for 2024 and $60 for both 2026 and 2027.

Oil Prices Gain On Venezuela Tariffs

Oil prices rallied in Wednesday’s session, a day after U.S. President Donald Trump announced that any country that buys oil or gas from Venezuela will pay a 25% secondary tariff on trades with the United States. Trump claims that Venezuela has sent “tens of thousands” of people to the U.S. who have a “very violent nature.” Brent crude for May delivery gained 1.2% to trade at $73.89 per barrel at 11.30 am ET while the comparable WTI crude contract climbed 1.2% to $69.84.

The secondary tariffs will target China, India, Spain, Italy and Cuba–all major buyers of Venezuelan oil. The tariffs could disrupt global oil supply chains, with U.S. oil companies likely to emerge as key beneficiaries of Venezuela’s customers looking for alternative supplies.

Oil Prices Rise as the EIA Reports a Decline in Crude and Product Inventories

Crude oil inventories in the United States saw a decrease of 3.3 million barrels during the week ending March 21, according to new data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration released on Wednesday.

Crude oil prices were trading up prior to the crude data release by the U.S. Energy Information Administration after the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported on Tuesday a draw of 4.6 million barrels in U.S. crude oil inventories amid a strong gasoline draw. The Brent benchmark was trading up 0.88% at 9:39 a.m. ET at $73.66—a roughly $3 per barrel increase over this same time last week. The WTI benchmark, meanwhile, was trading up 0.84% at $69.58—just shy of a $3 per barrel rise over last week’s levels.