Goldman Sachs has reduced its outlook for oil prices for the third time since the start of April, now expecting Brent crude to average $63 this year and $58 in 2026. The bank sees WTI at an average of $59 per barrel this year, falling to $55 in 2026, Reuters reported.
The update follows one from April 4, when Goldman slashed its 2025 outlook for Brent and WTI by 5.5% and 4.3%, respectively, to $69 for a barrel of Brent crude and $66 for a barrel of West Texas Intermediate. Then, on April 6, the bank cut its 2026 outlook for the oil benchmarks.
“Oil prices would likely exceed our forecast if the Administration were to reverse tariffs sharply and deliver a reassuring message to markets, consumers, and businesses,” Goldman analysts said in their note.
In its latest price update, Goldman predicted weaker-than-expected oil demand growth this year, at a modest 300,000 barrels daily this year. Goldman also revised down its demand forecast for the end of 2026, slashing the figure by 900,000 bpd for the final quarter, Reuters also noted in its report.
Prices could fall a lot further, too, Goldman said, in case OPEC+ decided to remove the production caps it adopted in 2023. In such a scenario prices could fall to the $40s for Brent crude, the bank’s analysts estimated, adding the global benchmark could even fall below $40 per barrel “in an extreme combined scenario.”
“The risks to our reduced oil price forecast are to the downside, especially for 2026, given growing risks of recession and to a lesser extent of higher OPEC+ supply,” Godman said in one of its earlier April notes, referring to the most expected outcome of the tariff war that President Trump started in early April. However, there is a good chance the war will end before it start hitting the global economy, eliminating the biggest risks as defined by Goldman Sachs and thus reducing the danger of a more serious oil price decline.
Source: By Irina Slav from Oilprice.com