Trump lashed out at remarks made by Putin, who questioned the legitimacy of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s government and suggested that a change in leadership may be necessary for a peace deal to be valid. Putin has consistently emphasized that elections in Ukraine will have to precede any ceasefire deal.
The fact that the EU still buys so much gas from Russia is telling, and the story it tells should make U.S. LNG producers happy. Whatever regulations the EU adopts in the name of its planet-saving push, energy supply security will always come on top. The decision to go long-term on LNG is one key piece of evidence. More evidence comes from the regulation itself, and it suggests implementation might be challenging, to put it mildly.
After a series of internal meetings at Iraq’s Oil Ministry over the past two weeks, talks with several international energy companies have begun with the aim of finally kickstarting developments on the country’s key non-associated gas fields, a senior source who works closely with the Ministry exclusively told OilPrice.com last week. “It’s finally sunk in that the jig’s up with the U.S. and Iran [Washington’s previous granting of waivers to Iraq to keep importing gas and electricity from Tehran], which means everyone’s now scrambling around trying to work out how they’re going increase gas output to levels that prevent rolling blackouts all year round,” the source said. “There are good options available to it [the Ministry], but they all have major political consequences attached, so the decisions in the coming weeks won’t be straightforward,” he added.
Over the past few weeks, the Trump administration has attempted to broker a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, offering a glimmer of hope that the 3-year war could soon come to an end. The U.S. has held separate meetings with Russian and Ukrainian delegations in a bid to reach a lasting deal, but one particular OPEC member is finding itself in the crosshairs of the conflict despite the ongoing peace negotiations.
The Chinese economy will also be key to oil market balances this year, as in any other year. Analysts are eager to see the direction of the economy in 2025 after the lackluster growth in 2024, when China barely hit its GDP growth target amid a series of hits and misses in key economic data points.
The Advanced Economies include the US, most of Europe, Japan, Australia, and a few other countries. Their per-capita consumption of oil, coal and nuclear electricity resources has been shrinking significantly since about 2005. The year 2005 was approximately the peak of “conventional” oil supplies. More oil has become available since this date, but this oil is generally more expensive to extract.
Instead, it’s all about oil. Trump has always been in the pocket of the US oil industry, while Russia is the world’s third-largest producer of fossil fuels. Russia is also the largest block of land in the Arctic, and it is known to hold vast and mostly untapped mineral wealth.
As Saudi Arabia pushes ahead with its ambitious Vision 2030 plan to build huge futuristic cities and resorts, the world’s top crude oil exporter will need to borrow more money on the debt markets as oil prices continue to linger at levels of about $20 per barrel lower than the Saudi fiscal breakeven oil price.
Saudi Arabia, for its part, looks to lock in future term sales for its crude in the top Asian markets, which are set to continue driving global demand growth in the coming years. India has even surpassed China as the single biggest driver of demand growth. Aramco already has several deals with Chinese refiners and petrochemical producers as the Saudi oil giant has been pursuing deals in recent years to expand its international downstream presence, especially in demand centers such as Asia.
If we stay on this trend, Trump would be taking a whole new approach towards the South American nation. In his first administration, he tried to isolate the country economically and politically to oust Nicolás Maduro’s regime. Joe Biden tried to leverage existing sanctions to push for a democratic election. But now, Trump 2.0 would be looking out for the interests of American businesses and consumers first, at the expense of other considerations.