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EU plan to end Russian gas imports faces legal, geopolitical snags

The EU’s plan to fully cut off Russian gas imports by 2027 faces legal, logistical and political hurdles.

Although the bloc has slashed Russian gas from 45% of its supply in 2021 to 19% in 2024, fully severing ties is proving difficult. Long-term contracts with companies such as TotalEnergies and Naturgy, lasting into the 2030s, are a major obstacle. Brussels is weighing “force majeure” clauses to exit these deals, but legal experts caution that without sanctions, such moves could spark costly arbitration.

Russia Oil Drilling at Fastest Pace in 5 Years as Curbs Ease

Russia’s production drilling averaged more than 2,370 km (7.8 million feet) in January and February, according to the latest available data seen by Bloomberg. That’s higher than the seasonal average for the first three years of the Kremlin’s invasion in Ukraine, which triggered broad restrictions on the availability of western oilfield services in Russia, historical data show.

Russian Oil Producers Accelerate New Drilling

The current level of drilling activity is also some 30% higher than it was before the war in the Ukraine started, Bloomberg noted, in evidence of the resilience of Russia’s energy industry to Western sanctions. Some of these targeted specifically the oil and gas industry on the assumption that local producers would be crippled if access to Western technology and equipment was cut off.

Russia Expects Fewer Exports and Lower Oil Prices This Year

Russia downgraded its outlook for exports this year and lowered expectations for the price for its oil, developments that may force the government to dip into its wealth fund to cover wartime spending.

The Economy Ministry forecast a 5.3% decline in exports to 410.6 billion rubles ($5 billion), down from an earlier projection of 445 billion rubles, the Interfax news service reported on Monday. The updated macroeconomic outlook also included a lower price for Urals oil of $56 a barrel, versus $69.70 seen earlier.

$17B in New Deals for World’s Largest Gas Field May Indirectly Go to Russia

Iran has awarded US$17 billion of contracts to attempt to reverse a dramatic projected production decline from the world’s biggest gas reservoir. Its South Pars field spans 3,700 square kilometres and holds an estimated 14.2 trillion cubic metres (tcm) of gas reserves plus 18 billion barrels of gas condensate. In addition to generating nearly 80% of Iran’s gas production, it also accounts for around 40% of its total estimated 33.8 tcm of gas reserves (mainly located in the southern Fars, Bushehr, and Hormozgan regions).

Russia Watchdog Halts Oil Loadings at One Berth in Novorossiysk

The Novorossiysk port is a key export route for Russian crude oil and petroleum products and any significant disruptions to loadings may affect the nation’s production flows. However, last month, 23 crude tankers loaded there to carry Russian barrels abroad. All of them loaded at berths 1, 1a or 2, according to vessel tracking data compiled by Bloomberg and shipping industry data.

A Fifth of EU Gas Imports in Q4 Came from Russia: Official Data

Russia accounted for 19 percent or 13.4 billion cubic meters (473.22 billion cubic feet) of EU gas imports in the fourth quarter (Q4), according to the European Commission’s quarterly gas market report. Russia’s share of gas imported into the 27-member bloc rose one percentage point from the prior three-month period and two percentage points against Q4 2023.