Oil prices continued to move higher on Friday morning in Asia, supported by renewed optimism surrounding U.S.-EU trade negotiations and expectations that Russia will restrict gasoline exports. Even reports of Chevron’s return to Venezuela, which analysts estimate could add around 200,000 barrels per day to global supply, have been unable to pull prices lower.
Slovakia’s government is planning to increase its intake of Russian pipeline gas under a temporary EU exemption, reversing earlier commitments to phase out Russian energy supplies in a controversial move amid a growing bloc-wide crackdown on Russian fossil fuels. The exemption allows Bratislava to continue drawing from Gazprom supplies until 2027, aligning with a long-term contract that runs through 2034.
EU states earlier approved a fresh sanctions package on Russia that included new banking restrictions and curbs on fuels made from the nation’s petroleum. The package – the bloc’s 18th since Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine – will also cut off 20 more Russian banks from the international payments system SWIFT and impose restrictions on Russian petroleum refined in other countries. A large oil refinery in India, part-owned by Russia’s state-run oil company, Rosneft PJSC, was also blacklisted.
The EU’s move to restrict fuels such as diesel made from Russian crude could have some market impact, as Europe imports the fuel from India, which in turn buys large amounts of Russian crude. Diesel markets have been showing signs of tightness for several weeks, and prices strengthened in early European trading relative to crude.
Oil markets have largely ignored Trump’s threats to impose 100% secondary tariffs on any country that buys Russian exports, with prices dropping significantly on Tuesday morning.
Freight rates for Russian Urals crude from Baltic ports to India have dipped again in July, falling to $5.0–$5.3 million per Aframax shipment—down from $5.5–$5.7 million in June—as more tankers become available.
Oil fell as U.S. President Donald Trump reignited his global trade war, while his latest plan to pressure Russia into a ceasefire with Ukraine didn’t include new measures aimed directly at hindering Moscow’s energy exports.
Mol wants the EU and other affected nations to take part in “revitalizing” the Odesa pipeline, which the company says would also provide an alternative to Russian oil for Serbia. Hungary and Serbia are currently building a pipeline connection.
The 27-member bloc imported a total of 69 billion cubic meters (2.44 trillion cubic feet) of gas in the January-March period, down two percent quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year. Pipeline gas accounted for 55 percent or 38 Bcm while liquefied natural gas (LNG) contributed 45 percent or 31 Bcm, according to the Commission’s latest quarterly gas market report.
While official statements treat each case in isolation, the sheer number and pattern demand attention. Kremlin critics and Western analysts are urging transparent, independent investigations. But in Putin’s Russia, that’s highly unlikely.