While Iraq and Russia made a small amount of progress, it was dwarfed by overproduction in habitual quota-violator Kazakhstan, where the backlog expanded by more than 40%. OPEC+ delegates have said that Astana’s persistent offending motivated last month’s surprise policy shift that raised production faster than expected, as Riyadh seeks to discipline the cheats with lower oil prices.
Last week, eight OPEC+ countries announced they would phase-out voluntary oil output cuts by ramping up output by 411,000 barrels per day in May–equivalent to three monthly increments. In other words, the Saudis are signaling they might be willing to give up their long-time role as OPEC’s swing producer in an attempt to take a tougher stance against countries that continue to violate the output pact, most notably Kazakhstan, the UAE and Iraq.
OPEC+ agreed to make a larger than expected oil supply hike in May, adding the equivalent of three monthly tranches from its previous plan to revive output.
The group led by Saudi Arabia and Russia will add 411,000 barrels a day to the market next month, according to a statement posted on the OPEC website. The decision followed a conference call between ministers on Thursday that was focused on member countries that had been consistently exceeding their quotas, delegates said, asking not to be identified as the talks were private.
OPEC’s heavyweights Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Kuwait, as well as Oman (not an OPEC producer but an OPEC+ member) exported on average 5.51 million barrels per day (bpd) of refined petroleum products in 2024, up by more than 7% on the year, per the data.
OPEC+ crude production surged last month as Kazakhstan, which has long flouted the cartel’s output quotas, further breached its agreed limit.
OPEC wasn’t keen on responding to President Trump’s pressures at the time, nor does it appear to be factoring into their decision now. But Trump’s recent decisions—global tariffs, sanctions on Iran, Russia, and Venezuela, and the US President’s favorable view of the oil industry as opposed to renewables are all making OPEC+’s decisions particularly complex as it attempts to properly manage supply in line with demand.
Iraq remains fully committed to its pledges in the OPEC+ agreement as the restart of oil exports from the semi-autonomous Iraqi region of Kurdistan appears imminent.
In a statement posted on its website recently, OPEC said it “welcomes the decision approved … by the National Energy Council of the Federative Republic of Brazil (CNPE) that formally paves the way for the participation of Brazil as a Member of the Charter of Cooperation (CoC) between oil producing countries”.
It would be the fourth time the Saudi Arabia-led producer group has delayed plans to revive output. That’s eased worries about a supply surplus developing this year. The International Energy Agency is calling for an overhang of 450,000 barrels a day and, in the US, inventories are sitting at a three-month high while one measure of market tightness is flashing signs of oversupply.
OPEC+ has not discussed delaying the increase in its oil supply currently planned to begin in April, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on Monday.