According to a table accompanying the statement, September “required production” is 9.978 million barrels per day for Saudi Arabia, 9.449 million barrels per day for Russia, 4.220 million barrels per day for Iraq, 3.375 million barrels per day for the United Arab Emirates, 2.548 million barrels per day for Kuwait, 1.550 million barrels per day for Kazakhstan, 959,000 barrels per day for Algeria, and 801,000 barrels per day for Oman.
Analysts note that much of the actual production growth since April has come from Saudi Arabia and the UAE, with other OPEC+ members struggling to meet their targets. RBC Capital Markets’ Helima Croft said the strategy has favored producers with spare capacity, as prices have held steady compared to early-year lows despite rising supply.
OPEC+ stuck to the script at Monday’s Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) meeting, offering no changes to current output policy and little surprise for market watchers. The virtual meeting—its 61st—reviewed production data from May and June and confirmed what most already suspected: while the group remains on track with its broad plans, not every member is keeping pace.
OPEC+ looks set to stay the course at Monday’s Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee meeting, with four anonymous delegates telling Reuters the group is unlikely to tinker with its output policy. A fifth source said it was too early to say. The plan on the table remains: raise production by 548,000 barrels per day in August—part of a previously announced unwinding of 2.2 million bpd in voluntary cuts by eight members. They are then expected to agree to a further 548,000 bpd in September.
Lower demand for crude oil from refiners at home gave a boost to U.S. exports of the commodity, turning it into a net exporter to OPEC member Nigeria in two of the seven months since the start of this year.
The OPEC+ producers pumped 41.559 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil in June, up by 349,000 bpd from May, but lower than the 411,000 bpd monthly increase under the alliance’s output hike plan.
Saudi Arabia raised crude output far above its OPEC+ quota last month, joining other producers in a rush to export oil out of the Persian Gulf as Israel went to war with Iran, according to the International Energy Agency.
“There is no peak oil demand on the horizon,” OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais wrote in the foreword of OPEC’s latest World Oil Outlook (WOO), which sees global oil demand growing by about 19% from now until 2050 to reach 123 million barrels per day (bpd).
Senior officials from three of OPEC’s core producer nations — Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Kuwait — lined up to say that the super-sized addition of supply by the producer club at the weekend was needed by the global market.
The OPEC+ oil producer alliance is likely to make its next hike in collective output its last for a while, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
With the producer club nearing the end of a first phase of jumbo output hikes, the market’s attention is turning to what will come after. The organization and its allies have been voluntarily holding back a second, smaller tranche of supply, propping up oil prices. Focus is now on the group’s intentions for those barrels.