“There is no peak oil demand on the horizon,” OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais wrote in the foreword of OPEC’s latest World Oil Outlook (WOO), which sees global oil demand growing by about 19% from now until 2050 to reach 123 million barrels per day (bpd).
Senior officials from three of OPEC’s core producer nations — Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Kuwait — lined up to say that the super-sized addition of supply by the producer club at the weekend was needed by the global market.
The OPEC+ oil producer alliance is likely to make its next hike in collective output its last for a while, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
With the producer club nearing the end of a first phase of jumbo output hikes, the market’s attention is turning to what will come after. The organization and its allies have been voluntarily holding back a second, smaller tranche of supply, propping up oil prices. Focus is now on the group’s intentions for those barrels.
This is not the first ban for three of the five media outlets. Back in 2023, OPEC refused to accredit journalists from Reuters, Bloomberg, and the Wall Street Journal for a ministerial meeting of OPEC+. The Financial Times suggested at the time it was because those publications sought to break a story before meetings were fully concluded, which could affect oil prices and Saudi Arabia’s top oil man Abdulaziz bin Salman wanted to avoid such volatility as the kingdom tried to push prices higher.
Oil prices eked out gains this week, a sign that the market has largely shrugged off the larger-than-expected output hike announced on Saturday by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies. Despite the current tightness, forecasters are pointing out that supply growth is at risk of outpacing demand later in the year.
Tanker tracking by Bloomberg shows that the Gulf state’s crude exports surged to a 19-month high in June as the OPEC+ alliance brought curbed barrels back. Most of Kuwait’s oil flows to Asian countries, including China, Japan and South Korea. Sheikh Nawaf said recent demand has been driven by Asia in particular, noting that KPC’s global business partners have been asking the company if it has additional barrels.
Eight key alliance members agreed to raise supply by 548,000 barrels a day at a video conference on Saturday, putting the group on pace to unwind its most recent layer of output cuts one year earlier than originally outlined. The countries had announced increases of 411,000 barrels for each of May, June and July – already three times faster than scheduled – and traders had expected the same amount for August.
OPEC+ will ramp up oil production more aggressively than anticipated in August, accelerating the rollback of its 2023 voluntary supply cuts in a bid to capture market share amid peak summer demand. At a virtual meeting Saturday, eight core members led by Saudi Arabia agreed to add 548,000 barrels per day (bpd) to global supply—exceeding earlier expectations of a 411,000 bpd hike. The move sets the bloc on track to fully unwind 2.2 million bpd of prior cuts nearly a year ahead of schedule.
Oil markets kicked off the new year in a downbeat mood, with Wall Street analysts almost unanimously predicting a huge oversupply in 2025 even if OPEC+ did not add a single barrel back into the market. Well, it’s six months on, and oil markets have continued to defy these bearish expectations.
OPEC’s second-largest producer, Iraq, was the single biggest supplier of crude from the cartel to the United States in May, per data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) cited by Iraqi media outlets Shafaq News and IraqiNews.