It was these nations that shattered market expectations on April 3, when they announced their first super-sized hike — triple the volume originally scheduled. The shock move, unveiled just hours after President Donald Trump launched a global trade war, helped send crude futures to a four-year low below $60 a barrel in the ensuing days, marking a rupture with years of efforts by the coalition to try to shore up prices.
Despite the market’s hand-wringing, OPEC+ appears determined to stick with its roadmap to gradually restore output that was cut during the COVID-era slump. The unwinding plan has been telegraphed for months, and reversing course now could risk credibility—something the group has worked hard to reestablish.
“Crude oil edged lower as the market contemplated the outlook for rising OPEC supply,” ANZ analysts said earlier today in a note, as quoted by Reuters. On the other hand, ING analysts noted President Trump’s concession to the EU, which delayed the entry into effect of 50% tariffs to early July in case the two failed to seal a new trade deal. Also on the bullish side, President Trump threatened Russia with more sanctions after intensified strikes on Ukraine that followed a large-scale Ukrainian attack on Russian territory.
In May and June, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners are due to add 411,000 barrels a day each month. Ministers will decide on July production levels during a video-conference on June 1, and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. predicts they will agree a third and final hike of about 411,000 barrels a day.
Goldman Sachs analysts have reportedly suggested that OPEC+ is likely to pause further oil production increases due to deteriorating global economic conditions. Goldman reportedly anticipates that OPEC+ will make a “final” decision in July to raise daily output by 411,000 barrels, but actual economic data may prompt a reassessment, according to @FirstSquawk, and lead to a halt beyond that.
Wall Street banks are racing this week to slash their oil price forecasts for 2025 and 2026 after OPEC+ threw another curveball at the market this weekend by vowing to continue raising production by more than initially planned.
Commodity strategists and analysts from major U.S. and European investment banks have issued notes with downgraded oil price forecasts for 2025 and 2026 since OPEC+ producers led by Saudi Arabia and Russia agreed on Saturday to raise collective output by 411,000 barrels per day (bpd), nearly triple the volume originally scheduled.
Oil dropped after OPEC+ agreed to another large output increase, raising concern that additional supply could lead to a global glut just as the trade war threatens demand.
West Texas Intermediate futures fell 2% to settle just above $57 a barrel, a fresh four-year low for the closing price. OPEC and its allies agreed on Saturday to continue loosening supply constraints as the group’s leaders seek to punish overproducing members and win back market share.
The U.S. stock markets enjoyed a broad rally on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 jumping nearly 2% a day after U.S. President Donald Trump announced that China tariffs will come down substantially, with another potential boost coming from a Wednesday Reuters report citing unnamed sources as saying talks to lead to significant tariff reductions.
OPEC+’s audacious bid to punish its oil-quota cheats prompted a renewed plunge in crude on Wednesday, as growing tensions with Kazakhstan stoked fears of an escalating price war.
Oil markets have been jittery since early April, when the producers’ group led by Saudi Arabia stunned traders by accelerating the revival in its output. This was an apparent effort to discipline over-producing members by driving down prices, yet Kazakhstan — the greatest offender — has continued to pump as usual at its biggest fields.
West Texas Intermediate futures added 1.9% to settle near $62.50 a barrel, the third gain in the four past sessions, after China signaled openness to trade negotiations with the Trump administration. Pre-conditions for the talks would include a more consistent US position and a willingness to address China’s concerns around American sanctions and Taiwan, according to a person familiar with the Chinese government’s thinking.