ncreased geopolitical risk in oil-producing regions is seen as a key driver of higher oil prices.
Tighter markets due to OPEC+ cuts and Russia’s export limitations are putting upward pressure on prices.
In an increasingly bullish oil market, Morgan Stanley sees Brent Crude hitting $94 per barrel in the third quarter of 2024.
Oil prices closed in on the $90 a barrel mark on Wednesday after the Opec+ alliance decided to stick with crude supply cuts for the first half of the year.
Global oil prices settled lower Friday for a third day in a row as the US dollar rose to the highest level in more than a month in the wake of the move by the Fed to pencil in three possible rate cuts this year, dovish remarks from the Bank of England and the surprise rate cut from the Swiss National Bank.
In an oil market update sent to Rigzone late Tuesday, Rystad Energy Senior Vice President Jorge Leon outlined that OPEC+’s extended production cuts of 1.7 million barrels per day into the second quarter have resulted in an increase of $5 per barrel to Rystad Energy’s previous price projection.
Oil prices on Thursday fell after a larger-than-expected build in U.S. crude stockpiles stoked worries about slow demand, while signs that U.S. interest rates could remain elevated added to pressure.
Oil prices edged up more than $1 on Tuesday as producer group OPEC+ considers extending voluntary oil output cuts into the second quarter to provide additional support, sources said.
Prices for North Sea and West African crude grades have increased this month.
The Red Sea shipping crisis and OPEC+ output cuts have tightened oil markets.
U.S. benchmark oil prices are also supported by higher demand for American crude in Europe due to the Red Sea disruption to flows.
The head of Russian oil major Gazprom Neft said on Saturday he sees no need for additional oil supply cuts by OPEC+ oil producers, days before the group is due to meet on output policy.
Oil prices held steady on Tuesday amid uncertainty over voluntary output cuts by OPEC+ and as continued tension in the Middle East spurred supply concern.
Brent crude futures LCOc1 edged up 13 cents to $78.16 a barrel by 0106 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures CLc1 were up 18 cents at $73.22 a barrel.
Brazil’s decision to join OPEC+ could have a seismic effect on the global oil production landscape, although it remains to be seen if the country will alter its production.
Brazil’s oil boom poses a significant threat to the ability of OPEC+ to control oil prices, and recent investments from Petrobras suggest the boom won’t end any time soon.
As well as Brazil, OPEC+ continued to face challenges from rising U.S. oil output and threats of increased production from non-consortium member Guyana.