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Are Oil Markets Underpricing Geopolitical Risks?

Oil prices have gained some upward momentum in the last week, driven by geopolitical tensions and inventory drawdowns.
Analysts continue to debate just how serious the geopolitical risks are and whether spare capacity and new production will be able to counter supply issues.
Seasonal shifts in demand, coupled with anticipated interest rate cuts, look set to push oil prices higher in the near future.

China Breaks Oil Import Records in Landmark Year

China’s oil imports reached 11.28 million bpd in the previous year, an 11% increase from
2022, driven by strong fuel demand at home and abroad.
Domestic crude oil production in China also hit a record, totaling 208 million tons for the year, averaging 4.2 million barrels per day.
China’s substantial oil storage activities and fuel exports, particularly to Europe post-Russian embargo, highlight both domestic and international demand dynamics.