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Can Iraq’s Gas Projects Survive Trump’s Iran Crackdown?

After a series of internal meetings at Iraq’s Oil Ministry over the past two weeks, talks with several international energy companies have begun with the aim of finally kickstarting developments on the country’s key non-associated gas fields, a senior source who works closely with the Ministry exclusively told OilPrice.com last week. “It’s finally sunk in that the jig’s up with the U.S. and Iran [Washington’s previous granting of waivers to Iraq to keep importing gas and electricity from Tehran], which means everyone’s now scrambling around trying to work out how they’re going increase gas output to levels that prevent rolling blackouts all year round,” the source said. “There are good options available to it [the Ministry], but they all have major political consequences attached, so the decisions in the coming weeks won’t be straightforward,” he added.

U.S. Sanctions on Iran Threaten Global Energy Markets

The latest round of US sanctions on Iran, which now targets Chinese so-called ‘teapot’ oil refineries—small, independently owned facilities—signals a growing determination to tighten the economic noose around the Tehran administration. With potential consequences reaching far beyond Iran itself, these moves could reshape geopolitics, disrupt the global economy and send shockwaves through energy markets.

While there is not yet a “maximum pressure” situation—where Iranian oil exports could drop from 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) to near zero—Washington is stepping up efforts to push Tehran back to the negotiating table for a new nuclear deal. However, escalating pressure could drive oil prices higher, conflicting with US President Donald Trump’s goal of lowering energy costs to fight inflation, as he promised in his January inauguration speech. Rystad Energy’s data on oil trade flows shows that almost all Iranian crude exports make their way to China, so achieving effective maximum pressure would require cooperation from the Chinese government.