After a series of internal meetings at Iraq’s Oil Ministry over the past two weeks, talks with several international energy companies have begun with the aim of finally kickstarting developments on the country’s key non-associated gas fields, a senior source who works closely with the Ministry exclusively told OilPrice.com last week. “It’s finally sunk in that the jig’s up with the U.S. and Iran [Washington’s previous granting of waivers to Iraq to keep importing gas and electricity from Tehran], which means everyone’s now scrambling around trying to work out how they’re going increase gas output to levels that prevent rolling blackouts all year round,” the source said. “There are good options available to it [the Ministry], but they all have major political consequences attached, so the decisions in the coming weeks won’t be straightforward,” he added.
The latest round of US sanctions on Iran, which now targets Chinese so-called ‘teapot’ oil refineries—small, independently owned facilities—signals a growing determination to tighten the economic noose around the Tehran administration. With potential consequences reaching far beyond Iran itself, these moves could reshape geopolitics, disrupt the global economy and send shockwaves through energy markets.
While there is not yet a “maximum pressure” situation—where Iranian oil exports could drop from 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) to near zero—Washington is stepping up efforts to push Tehran back to the negotiating table for a new nuclear deal. However, escalating pressure could drive oil prices higher, conflicting with US President Donald Trump’s goal of lowering energy costs to fight inflation, as he promised in his January inauguration speech. Rystad Energy’s data on oil trade flows shows that almost all Iranian crude exports make their way to China, so achieving effective maximum pressure would require cooperation from the Chinese government.
The tightened U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil flows under the Trump Administration’s renewed maximum pressure campaign have created chaos in Iran’s oil exports to its single biggest buyer, China.
Trafigura Group’s head of oil trading Ben Luckock has named U.S. foreign policy towards Iran as the biggest upside risk to crude prices in an otherwise well-supplied market.
An increase in ship-to-ship transfers, plus the emergence of alternative receiving terminals, led to the jump, according to traders who participate in the market and asked not to be identified because the matter is sensitive.
Iran called on all members of the OPEC oil cartel last week to take united action against the U.S.’s ramping up of sanctions on the Islamic Republic. The statement from its President Masoud Pezeshkian followed Donald Trump’s instruction to his key cabinet colleagues to increase sanctions on Iran to reduce its oil exports to zero.
Oil edged down as US President Donald Trump’s renewed pledge to drive down the price of crude overshadowed his push for tighter Iranian sanctions.
China has been importing Iranian oil indirectly via proxies. According to StanChart, crude oil imports from Malaysia clocked in at 1.456 million barrels per day (mb/d) in June, the second-highest monthly average on record.
Crude oil prices started trade today with a dip despite the latest news around President Donald Trump who on Tuesday confirmed he would be returning to a maximum pressure approach to Iran, aiming to reduce its oil exports to zero, and said he wants the U.S. to take over the Gaza Strip and develop it.
A cold snap has forced school closures and other disruptions to public life across much of Iran, as authorities grapple with a shortage of natural gas for heating and electricity generation.