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China and U.S. Shape 2025 Oil Predictions

Doubts about oil demand growth will persist beyond 2024, and fears of a price slump will be there to keep them company. That’s according to some recent predictions about the state of the oil market in 2025, which see demand growing, China directing the market, and OPEC still likely to unwind its production cuts.

Oil Prices Inch Up on Hopes of a U.S. Rate Cut and China Stimulus Measures

Preliminary estimates see the November CPI reading at 2.7%, which would be a slight increase on October’s 2.6%. Core inflation for November is seen at 3.3% on an annual basis—for the fourth month in a row. These figures might make a new rate cut decision a bit problematic but media reports suggest that market players overwhelmingly expect that decision.

China’s Oil Imports Jumped in November

The year-to-date rate of oil imports, however, remains a decline on 2023 and chances are that the full-2024 figure will be lower than the 2023 total as well. This will probably add fuel to trader pessimism about future demand even as China doubles down on stimulus to accelerate its economic growth.

China and OPEC+ Provide Support for Oil Prices

Crude oil prices have found some support this week, driven by China’s economic recovery and OPEC+ production strategies. China, the world’s second-largest oil consumer, reported its fastest factory activity growth in five months, reinforcing optimism about future crude demand. Analysts view Beijing’s targeted stimulus measures as a potential catalyst for stabilizing global oil markets.

Chinese Firm Moves Forward With This Strategically Critical Iraqi Gas Field

In practical energy terms, the Mansuriya field holds an estimated 4.5 trillion standard cubic feet (Tscf) of gas and is expected to produce around 300 million scf per day (Mmscf/d) of gas at its peak, although it will start running at about 100 Mmscf/d within 18 months, a senior energy source who works closely with Iraq’s Oil Ministry told OilPrice.com. That said, the site has a deeper and broader appeal to China, with the Mansuriya field having long been regarded by it, the U.S., Russia and Iran as holding a vital strategic position in the heart of the Middle East.

CNOOC begins production on Huizhou 26-6 oilfield development project

The project is located in the Pearl River Mouth Basin, with an average water depth of approximately 110 meters. The main production facilities include a new intelligent drilling production platform, as well as the adaptively modified “NAN HAI FEN JIN” FPSO. A total of 19 development wells are planned to be commissioned, including 2 oil production wells and 17 gas production wells. The project is expected to achieve a peak production of approximately 20,600 boed in 2027. The main products include light crude and natural gas.