The news that Russia agreed to a limited ceasefire, which includes only an energy and infrastructure ceasefire for 30 days, is the first of many steps needed to achieve lasting peace.
That’s what Rystad Energy’s Head of Geopolitical Analysis, Jorge León, said in a market update sent to Rigzone by the Rystad team late Wednesday. León added in the update that the agreement “clearly falls short of the expectations of a permanent end to the fighting President Trump hoped to broker”.
“The immediate reaction in the financial markets points in that direction,” León said in the update.
“After falling during the day, yesterday [Tuesday] oil prices increased by more than $0.5 per barrel on the news. Similarly, gold prices also increased by $3 per ounce,” he added.
“The market’s expectation of a quick resolution, in line with President Trump’s desire, will need to be reassessed,” he continued.
León noted in the update that the scenario of a permanent peace agreement achieved through small steps over a longer period seems more plausible now.
“As such, the likelihood of an imminent increase in Russian oil and gas supplies in the market has decreased after the meeting,” León added.
Rigzone has contacted the Trump transition team, the White House, the Department of Information and Press of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and the Press Office of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine for comment on Rystad’s market update. At the time of writing, none of the above have responded to Rigzone.
In a breaking news market update sent to Rigzone last week by the Rystad team, León said the energy market implications of a Ukraine-Russia ceasefire could be huge. He highlighted in that update, however, that it is “still early in the process”.
In a market analysis sent to Rigzone this morning, Konstantinos Chrysikos, Head of Customer Relationship Management at Kudotrade, said gold prices “hit another record high as heightened geopolitical tensions increased safe-haven demand”.
“In the Middle East, Israel launched a ground operation in Gaza, raising investors’ concerns. At the same time, the U.S. continued targeting Houthi positions in Yemen,” he added.
“If tensions escalate further, gold could maintain its bullish momentum and potentially reach new all-time highs,” he continued.
“Meanwhile, in Eastern Europe, diplomatic efforts between Russia and Ukraine gained attention after talks between U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky,” he said.
“While progress could boost investor sentiment and reduce demand for gold, uncertainty over Russian President Vladimir Putin’s next moves may keep markets on edge,” Chrysikos went on to state.
Jorge Leon is described on Rystad’s website as an energy economist with more than 15 years of experience in research and consulting in the energy sector, “with significant expertise in monitoring, analyzing, and forecasting world energy and oil developments”.
From 2018 to 2022 he was part of BP’s Economic and Energy Insights team in London, the site highlights. He worked at the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries from 2013 to 2018, Rystad’s site points out.
Rystad describes itself on its site as an independent research and energy intelligence company, “equipping clients with data, insights and education that power better decision-making”.
Chrysikos describes himself on social media as “an economic scientist” and “a skilled … financial services professional with 9 years+ of experience in various positions”.
Kudotrade describes itself on its site as “a forward-thinking broker, implementing cutting-edge technology to provide clients based worldwide with a transparent and seamless trading experience”.
Source: By Andreas Exarheas from Rigzone.com