OPEC+ will make its August oil production decision on the fly during the upcoming July 6 meeting, Russia confirmed on Friday, suggesting there would be no pre-negotiating behind closed doors.
“We’ll review it during the meeting, as is traditional,” Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak told reporters, adding to market anticipation ahead of the gathering.
Eight OPEC+ nations—including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, and the UAE—have been incrementally unwinding 2.2 million barrels per day of voluntary cuts since April, with monthly increases of 411,000 bpd. While Saudi Arabia is reportedly pushing to maintain this accelerated pace into August, Russia’s posture has shifted from cautious to open—signaling it may support another hike if consensus is reached.
Oil prices, meanwhile, are attempting to stabilize after a steep 12% weekly plunge, their worst since 2022. Brent briefly topped $77 amid the Iran-Israel conflict but has since fallen to $68 as ceasefire headlines drained the geopolitical premium. Light crude futures are hovering just above the 200-day moving average at $65.15—a key technical pivot. A close below could invite another wave of selling, while a bounce might spur short-covering toward $67.44 or higher.
Despite the recent slump, underlying fundamentals are mixed. U.S. inventory draws, tightening middle distillate markets in Europe and Asia, and surging Chinese imports of Iranian crude all support the bulls. Yet oversupply concerns persist, especially if OPEC+ keeps adding barrels in the face of sluggish non-OPEC demand growth.
OPEC’s own outlook remains bullish. Secretary-General Haitham Al Ghais recently reaffirmed that “there is no peak in oil demand on the horizon,” projecting growth of 1.3 million bpd in both 2025 and 2026.
With Russia signaling flexibility and Saudi Arabia pressing to regain market share, all eyes are now on July 6. Traders will be watching not just what OPEC+ decides—but how unified the group appears in doing so.
By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com