OPEC Leaves Forecast for 2024 Oil-Demand Growth Unchanged

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on Wednesday stuck to its forecast for relatively strong growth in global oil demand in 2024 and said 2025 will see a robust increase in oil use, led by China and the Middle East.

OPEC, in a monthly report, said world oil demand will rise by 1.85 million barrels per day in 2025. For 2024, OPEC saw demand growth of 2.25 million bpd, unchanged from last month.In 2025, OPEC anticipates an increase in global economic growth to 2.8% from 2.6% this year in part because of interest rate cuts.OPEC estimated the call on its crude at 28.5 million b/d for 2024 and 29 million b/d for 2025.

The report noted OPEC oil production rose slightly in December to 26.70 million bpd in comparison to 26.63 million bpd in the past month, according to secondary sources.In terms of oil supply, the organization expected non-OPEC production to rise by 1.3 million bpd in both 2024 and 2025 to 70.4 million bpd and 71.7 million bpd, respectively.

At the same time, in 2023, oil production by countries outside of OPEC is estimated to have increased by 2.1 million barrels per day compared to the previous year, to 69.1 million barrels per day.It forecast non-OPEC upstream investment to slightly drop to $473 billion in 2025 in comparison to 2024.