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Even if all these signals were overlooked, the effect that Biden sanctions had on international prices should have been proof enough that the surplus narrative is in a precarious relationship with reality. Had the oil market really been in surplus—and a large one—the sanctions would not have had any palpable effect on benchmarks.
The Biden Administration’s final sanctions on Russian oil trade were the most aggressive yet and sanctioned dozens of vessels that Russia used to ship the ESPO crude blend from its Far East port of Kozmino to China’s independent refiners.
The U.S. last week stepped into the long-running embargo by the Baghdad-based Federal Government of Iraq (FGI) of independent oil exports from Iraq’s semi-autonomous region of Kurdistan (KRI) centred in Erbil. These flows into Turkey were stopped on 25 March 2023 after the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) ordered Ankara to pay the FGI US$1.5 billion in damages for these allegedly unauthorised oil exports. U.S. State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller told local Iraqi news outlets that Washington has encouraged the historically pro-West Erbil and more pro-China Baghdad to reach a sustainable agreement on budgetary issues that would facilitate sustained oil production in the Kurdistan Region.
Chinese state-held oil and gas giant CNOOC is keeping its capital expenditure flat this year compared to 2024 as it lowered its oil and gas production growth target, although it still expects annual output records going forward.
Germany, which in 2023 closed all its remaining nuclear power plants – is now seeking to balance the generation and transmission systems with new gas power plants. But deadlines and timelines are being missed, and a new government is expected after the snap elections in late February.
Asian spot LNG prices have risen in the winter period, but not enough to keep a wide enough premium to Europe’s benchmark prices to incentivize selling U.S. cargoes to Asia, according to shipping data and analysts.
Analysts at Wall Street bank Citigroup have predicted that oil prices will remain elevated in 2025 thanks to U.S. sanctions on oil exports, logistical challenges and strategic policy decisions by major producers and governments. Citigroup notes that Over 180 vessels, integral to transporting Russian crude, are now restricted. Two weks ago, the Biden administration issued sanctions against Russian crude, and targeted Surgutneftgas and Gazprom Neft, two firms that handle 25% of Russian oil exports. The two companies shipped an average of 970,000 bbls per day in 2024. Earlier, Citigroup issued a Brent crude average price target of $67 per barrel for 2025, well below current price at $79.10.
The American Petroleum Institute (API) estimated that crude oil inventories in the United increased by 1 million barrels for the week ending January 17. Analysts surveyed by Reuters had expected the API to report a draw of around 1.6 million barrels.
In the latest sanction package, reported to be the harshest yet, the Treasury of the outgoing Biden administration imposed sanctions on Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegaz, as well as on 183 tankers, many of them in the so-called shadow fleet Russia uses to ship its oil abroad without having to use Western vessels or insurance.