The fundamental argument for today’s rise in natural gas futures is driven by higher LNG exports and colder weather forecasts, which are expected to boost heating demand.
That’s what Art Hogan, Chief Market Strategist at B. Riley Wealth, told Rigzone in an exclusive interview on Monday when asked why the U.S. natural gas price is up today.
“Gas flows to LNG export plants also increased to 15.1 billion cubic feet per day so far in February, up from 14.6 billion cubic feet per day in January, nearing December’s record,” he added.
“Looking ahead, meteorologists predict colder than normal weather through February 22, which will likely maintain high demand. The technical driver is the bullish signal we see with prices above key support at $3.40 per million British thermal units (MMBtu),” Hogan went on to state.
When asked the same question in a separate exclusive interview on Monday, Phil Flynn, a senior market analyst at the PRICE Futures Group, said, “just when you thought winter was over, another winter storm is driving the prices”.
“Concerns that we will see some lower production due to freeze offs, as well as the possibility that the winter will continue into March, … [is] giving the market a boost,” he added.
“There is a lot of concern now because the supplies have fallen below the five year average and that is suggesting a much tighter market than anyone thought possible just a few months ago,” Flynn continued.
In its latest weekly natural gas storage report, which was released on February 6 and included data for the week ending January 31, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) noted that “working gas in storage was 2,397 billion cubic feet as of Friday, January 31, 2025, according to EIA estimates”.
“This represents a net decrease of 174 billion cubic feet from the previous week. Stocks were 208 billion cubic feet less than last year at this time and 111 billion cubic feet below the five-year average of 2,508 billion cubic feet,” the report added.
“At 2,397 billion cubic feet, total working gas is within the five-year historical range,” it went on to state.
The EIA’s next weekly natural gas storage report is scheduled to be released on February 13. It will include data for the week ending January 7.
In a media advisory sent to Rigzone on Friday by the AccuWeather team, AccuWeather stated that its “expert meteorologists say families and businesses across more than 20 states will face relentless rounds of winter storms and hazardous travel conditions that will linger into late February”.
“This is the stormiest stretch of the winter with a February frenzy of storms every few days in many places,” AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter said in the advisory.
B. Riley Wealth’s website notes that Hogan’s “distinguished financial industry career spans 30+ years, during which he has concentrated on the U.S. equity markets”. The site points out that Hogan has served as a member of the Board of Governors of Boston Stock Exchange, Inc., and a member of the Board of Directors of NASDAQ OMX BX, Inc.
Flynn is described on the PRICE Futures Group website as “one of the world’s leading energy market analysts, providing individual investors, professional traders, and institutions with up-to-the-minute investment and risk management insight into global petroleum, gasoline, and energy markets”.
Source: by Andreas Exarheas Rigzone Staff