Oil news this week has been a mixed bag, but it seems bullish developments have prevailed. Sanctions on Iran are one of the leading reasons for the recovery in oil prices. Another is a forecast from the International Energy Agency that expects oil supply growth this year to be weaker than previously predicted.
The latest round of US sanctions on Iran, which now targets Chinese so-called ‘teapot’ oil refineries—small, independently owned facilities—signals a growing determination to tighten the economic noose around the Tehran administration. With potential consequences reaching far beyond Iran itself, these moves could reshape geopolitics, disrupt the global economy and send shockwaves through energy markets.
While there is not yet a “maximum pressure” situation—where Iranian oil exports could drop from 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) to near zero—Washington is stepping up efforts to push Tehran back to the negotiating table for a new nuclear deal. However, escalating pressure could drive oil prices higher, conflicting with US President Donald Trump’s goal of lowering energy costs to fight inflation, as he promised in his January inauguration speech. Rystad Energy’s data on oil trade flows shows that almost all Iranian crude exports make their way to China, so achieving effective maximum pressure would require cooperation from the Chinese government.
Middlemen who supply Russian oil have stopped offering cargoes after the latest U.S. sanctions imposed by the Biden administration targeting Russian producers, tankers and insurers, Bharat Petroleum CFO has revealed. The sanctions have targeted Surgutneftgas and Gazprom Neft, two Russian oil firms that handle 25% of Russian oil exports. The two companies shipped an average of 970,000 bbls a day in 2024. Bharat Petroleum and other Indian state refiners buy Russian oil in the spot market, mainly from traders.