The Trump-Putin meeting this Friday and the oil trade spat with India have been hogging the headlines these days, but meanwhile, the tariff war continues—and it may end with a complete rearrangement of global supply chains.
In a later statement, India’s foreign ministry said that oil import decisions were “based on market factors and done with the overall objective of ensuring the energy security of 1.4bn people of India”. A spokesperson for the ministry said that “It is therefore extremely unfortunate that the US should choose to impose additional tariffs on India for actions that several other countries are also taking in their own national interest. We reiterate that these actions are unfair, unjustified and unreasonable.”
The tariff would aim to reshape the global semiconductor supply chain by incentivizing onshore production. Notable companies such as Apple, already committing over $100 billion in additional U.S. investments (bringing their total pledge to $500 billion), are being touted as major beneficiaries of this carve?out. Major chipmakers like TSMC—with its new Arizona fab—and Samsung, as well as SK Hynix, are also expected to qualify for exemptions given their current or planned production footprints in the U.S.
In the energy sector, U.S. power utilities have announced billions of dollars in capital plans for the next few years and are getting a lot of requests from commercial users, most notably Big Tech, for new power capacity in many areas next to planned data centers.
Oil markets have largely ignored Trump’s threats to impose 100% secondary tariffs on any country that buys Russian exports, with prices dropping significantly on Tuesday morning.
The broad view of the US President Donald Trump’s first administration as exclusively told to OilPrice.com at the time by a senior legal figure in that team was: “We’re not going to put up with any more crap from the Saudis.”
Oil fell as U.S. President Donald Trump reignited his global trade war, while his latest plan to pressure Russia into a ceasefire with Ukraine didn’t include new measures aimed directly at hindering Moscow’s energy exports.
West Texas Intermediate advanced almost 3% to settle above $68 a barrel after President Donald Trump said he plans to make a “major statement” on Russia on Monday and reiterated criticism of President Vladimir Putin. One sanctions bill, which at least 85 senators have endorsed, would levy 500% tariffs on China and India if they make any purchases of Russian energy.
U.S. shale oil producers are unlikely to heed President Donald Trump’s latest call to “Drill, Baby, Drill” as they prioritize hedging over ramping up production in response to U.S. military strikes on Iran.
While China hasn’t officially purchased Iranian barrels since June 2022, third-party data providers and traders signal flows have been resilient despite broad US sanctions. That’s because the Chinese have built a supply chain outside of western control, which includes dark fleet ships and yuan-denominated payments, supporting imports of more than 1 million barrels a day.