Momentary price spikes aside, the recent conflict and now uneasy ceasefire between Israel and Iran has done little to alter the trajectory of global oil markets, according to a new analysis by S&P Global Commodity Insights.
“Slowing global oil demand amid extreme uncertainty about the future of U.S. trade and a coming supply surplus are expected to hobble U.S. oil production growth later this year and could lead to an annual decline in output in 2026, according to a new analysis by S&P Global Commodity Insights,” the analysis piece – by Jim Burkhard, Vice President and Global Head of Crude Oil Research, Ian Stewart, Associate Director, and the S&P Global Commodity Insights Crude Oil Markets team – stated.
“U.S. oil production growth has been a dominant feature in the oil market since 2022,” said Burkhard. “A price-driven decline in U.S. production would be a pivot point for the oil market—and set conditions for a potential price recovery. But much will depend on the severity of an economic slowdown and the impact on demand growth beyond 2025.”
Insecurity and extremism in the coup-plagued Sahel risk destabilizing West African coastal states, which will soon be responsible for almost 500,000 b/d of oil and refined product flows, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights data.
The eagerly anticipated African Energy Bank will launch by June 30 after selecting a host nation this month and hopes to raise an initial $5 billion from African signatories, international financiers and Middle Eastern states, its head told S&P Global Commodity Insights.