“Oil prices came under pressure in February as trade war uncertainty overshadowed sanctions-related supply risks,” ING’s commodities strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey said this week.
Even if all these signals were overlooked, the effect that Biden sanctions had on international prices should have been proof enough that the surplus narrative is in a precarious relationship with reality. Had the oil market really been in surplus—and a large one—the sanctions would not have had any palpable effect on benchmarks.