Although the U.S. has left the door open for a resumption of talks with Iran, Europe is deadly serious about reimposing the full weight of pre-2015 sanctions on the Islamic Republic, a very senior security source who works with the European Union’s security complex exclusively told OilPrice.com last week.
Russia’s crude oil and condensate exports have declined slightly since 2022, but the bigger shift has come in where those barrels are going, according to new analysis released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Aug. 7.
West Texas Intermediate advanced almost 3% to settle above $68 a barrel after President Donald Trump said he plans to make a “major statement” on Russia on Monday and reiterated criticism of President Vladimir Putin. One sanctions bill, which at least 85 senators have endorsed, would levy 500% tariffs on China and India if they make any purchases of Russian energy.
“Oil prices came under pressure in February as trade war uncertainty overshadowed sanctions-related supply risks,” ING’s commodities strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey said this week.
Even if all these signals were overlooked, the effect that Biden sanctions had on international prices should have been proof enough that the surplus narrative is in a precarious relationship with reality. Had the oil market really been in surplus—and a large one—the sanctions would not have had any palpable effect on benchmarks.