Oil prices retreated from last week’s multi-year highs on Monday as a small number of tankers successfully sailed through the Strait of Hormuz for the first time since the war began, offering traders a first tentative signal that the waterway could partially reopen, though analysts warned that a sustained price retreat remained unlikely without a broader military resolution.
We will then look at some of the key market movers early this week before providing you with the latest analysis of the top news events taking place in the global energy complex over the past few days. We hope you enjoy.
Oil has dropped about $10 this month as the trade fight started by President Donald Trump stoked fears of a global recession that would hurt energy demand, especially in the US and China, the biggest crude consumers. Concerns about the growth outlook have led agencies to cut projections for oil usage and analysts to slash price forecasts, with the possibility of a glut amplified by OPEC+’s surprise decision to bring back output more quickly than expected.
“Crude has been pricing in only a minimal geopolitical risk premium as tensions between Israel and Hamas resurface,” said Rebecca Babin, a senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth Group. “Most traders view the premiums as selling opportunities, positioning for inventory builds later in the year and increasing macroeconomic risks.”