The global oil market has been rocked in recent months by the move from eight core OPEC+ nations to relax supply restraints at a faster-than-expected pace, potentially adding supplies just as trade frictions menace demand. The surprise shift has been presented as a bid by the cartel to reclaim market share from rival drillers, as well as punish its own quota cheats.
The UN-backed alliance, which includes over 140 banks with more than $70 trillion (£56.5 trillion) in assets, was founded in 2021 with the goal of bringing the financial sector into alignment with the Paris Climate Agreement.
Morgan Stanley expects Brent Crude prices to average $70 per barrel in the second half of 2025, up from a $66-$68 a barrel range expected previously, after OPEC+ delayed the beginning of its production increase and slowed the pace of the output hikes into 2026.
ncreased geopolitical risk in oil-producing regions is seen as a key driver of higher oil prices.
Tighter markets due to OPEC+ cuts and Russia’s export limitations are putting upward pressure on prices.
In an increasingly bullish oil market, Morgan Stanley sees Brent Crude hitting $94 per barrel in the third quarter of 2024.