Oil rose as the potential for the U.S. to curtail Iranian flows added to a rebound driven by broader markets.
West Texas Intermediate advanced about 2% to settle near $64 a barrel, recouping most of the previous day’s losses, which were driven by U.S. President Donald Trump’s public rebuke of the Federal Reserve.
The ultimate goal of the sanctions is to reduce Iran’s oil exports to zero, as stated by President Trump in a February directive to the State Department. The president directed the Secretary of State to “implement a robust and continual campaign, in coordination with the Secretary of the Treasury and other relevant executive departments or agencies, to drive Iran’s export of oil to zero, including exports of Iranian crude to the People’s Republic of China.”
Iran is targeting a dramatic increase in oil production from the fields it shares with neighbouring Iraq, according to the chief executive officer of its Petroleum Engineering and Development Company (PEDEC), Nasrollah Zarei. These include its enormous Azadegan oil field (split into North and South sites) that sits on the same reservoir as Iraq’s huge Majnoon site, and the massive Yadavaran oil field which occupies the same reservoir as Iraq’s Sinbad site. Other notable major shared fields – among many others — are Azar (on the Iran side)/Badra (on the Iraq side), Naft Shahr (Iran)/Naft Khana (Iraq), Dehloran (Iran)/Abu Ghurab (Iraq), West Paydar (Iran)/Fakka (Iraq), and Arvand (Iran)/South Abu Ghurab (Iraq). This is part of a broader-based plan to bring output across all Iran’s major fields in the ultra-rich oil field cluster of West Karoun to 1 million barrels per day (bpd) from the current 480,000 bpd.
Trump lashed out at remarks made by Putin, who questioned the legitimacy of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s government and suggested that a change in leadership may be necessary for a peace deal to be valid. Putin has consistently emphasized that elections in Ukraine will have to precede any ceasefire deal.
After a series of internal meetings at Iraq’s Oil Ministry over the past two weeks, talks with several international energy companies have begun with the aim of finally kickstarting developments on the country’s key non-associated gas fields, a senior source who works closely with the Ministry exclusively told OilPrice.com last week. “It’s finally sunk in that the jig’s up with the U.S. and Iran [Washington’s previous granting of waivers to Iraq to keep importing gas and electricity from Tehran], which means everyone’s now scrambling around trying to work out how they’re going increase gas output to levels that prevent rolling blackouts all year round,” the source said. “There are good options available to it [the Ministry], but they all have major political consequences attached, so the decisions in the coming weeks won’t be straightforward,” he added.
The latest round of US sanctions on Iran, which now targets Chinese so-called ‘teapot’ oil refineries—small, independently owned facilities—signals a growing determination to tighten the economic noose around the Tehran administration. With potential consequences reaching far beyond Iran itself, these moves could reshape geopolitics, disrupt the global economy and send shockwaves through energy markets.
While there is not yet a “maximum pressure” situation—where Iranian oil exports could drop from 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) to near zero—Washington is stepping up efforts to push Tehran back to the negotiating table for a new nuclear deal. However, escalating pressure could drive oil prices higher, conflicting with US President Donald Trump’s goal of lowering energy costs to fight inflation, as he promised in his January inauguration speech. Rystad Energy’s data on oil trade flows shows that almost all Iranian crude exports make their way to China, so achieving effective maximum pressure would require cooperation from the Chinese government.
The tightened U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil flows under the Trump Administration’s renewed maximum pressure campaign have created chaos in Iran’s oil exports to its single biggest buyer, China.
Trafigura Group’s head of oil trading Ben Luckock has named U.S. foreign policy towards Iran as the biggest upside risk to crude prices in an otherwise well-supplied market.
An increase in ship-to-ship transfers, plus the emergence of alternative receiving terminals, led to the jump, according to traders who participate in the market and asked not to be identified because the matter is sensitive.
Iran called on all members of the OPEC oil cartel last week to take united action against the U.S.’s ramping up of sanctions on the Islamic Republic. The statement from its President Masoud Pezeshkian followed Donald Trump’s instruction to his key cabinet colleagues to increase sanctions on Iran to reduce its oil exports to zero.