Many questions remain, including the state of Iran’s uranium stockpile and whether any ceasefire will lead to discussions about Tehran’s nuclear program. The Islamic Republic, which has denied it’s seeking an atomic weapon, has refused to give up the right to enrich uranium, a condition the US has insisted upon.
“And so what is going to happen is that Oman is not going to allow for a unilateral decision to just close that end completely again, like I pointed out, the Chinese had a lot of interest in terms of movements of goods and other services, or, eh, movements of goods more or less to the Chinese and other South Asian countries. And so they also have an interest in ensuring that the passage is not closed,” he said during a discussion on TV3 on Monday, June 23.
That’s what Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief Commodities Analyst at Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (SEB), said in an oil report sent to Rigzone by the SEB team on Monday. In the report, Schieldrop highlighted that Brent crossed the $80 per barrel line this morning but noted that it “quickly fell back, assigning limited probability for Iran choosing to close the Strait of Hormuz”.
Police in New York, Washington and Los Angeles increased patrols at religious institutions, diplomatic facilities and public spaces. Officials cited no immediate credible threats but highlighted the need for vigilance. The Department of Homeland Security said the Israel-Iran war has placed the US in a “heightened threat environment” through Sept. 22.
Trump, who is scheduled to attend a national security meeting in the Oval Office on Friday, has publicly mused for days about having the US increase the stakes by joining Israel’s strikes on Iran. His latest stance signals a step back after a run of tough rhetoric, including demands for residents of Tehran to evacuate, and his early departure from this week’s Group of Seven summit in Canada to return to Washington.
As the Israel-Iran conflict shows no signs of abating, oil supply from the Middle East could become vulnerable if the two sides decide to attack vital energy infrastructure in the region, RBC Capital Markets said, warning that energy, and oil in particular, are now “clearly in the crosshairs.”
Global tanker operators and shipping authorities have taken decisive action, even without an official closure of the Strait of Hormuz, amid escalating tension between Israel and Iran. Their public statements, route shifts, and risk assessments are reshaping freight scheduling, insurance premiums, and–most significantly–energy market sentiment in real time.
Israel launched a series of airstrikes on Tehran’s critical energy infrastructure early Sunday, setting ablaze the city’s main gas depot and a major oil refinery, as the conflict with Iran intensified into its most destructive phase yet. The attacks, part of a broader Israeli offensive targeting Iran’s energy sector, have heightened fears of a wider regional war and sent ripples through global oil markets.
Oil jumped and stocks slid after Israel attacked Iran’s nuclear program facilities and killed senior military commanders in a significant escalation of tensions in the Middle East.
Crude oil analysts are in a rush to revise their forecasts in the wake of Israel’s attacks on Iran as geopolitics trumps fundamentals yet again.
“Oil could spike toward $80 if Middle East tensions escalate and supply risks materialize, but rising OPEC+ output may cap gains and revive oversupply concerns into autumn,” Saxo Markets chief investment strategist Charu Chanana said, as quoted by Bloomberg.