Although the U.S. has left the door open for a resumption of talks with Iran, Europe is deadly serious about reimposing the full weight of pre-2015 sanctions on the Islamic Republic, a very senior security source who works with the European Union’s security complex exclusively told OilPrice.com last week.
The United States and Iran are poised to return to the negotiating table at a moment when tensions between the two are high and trust is low.
The talks were initially planned for July 10 in Oslo, according to RFE/RL’s sources, who now say the meeting has been postponed — likely to next week.
On Monday June 23, 2025, Iran launched a missile strike on the U.S. Al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar—a retaliatory move following U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities over the weekend. Explosions were reported near Doha, and additional strikes were reported against American assets in Iraq.
“[W]hile Iran has not yet targeted the route, even a limited disruption would severely impact global supply,” Oxford Economics analysts said in a June 20 client note. “In a worst-case scenario, prices could spike to $130 per barrel and shave 0.8 percentage points off global GDP.”
While China hasn’t officially purchased Iranian barrels since June 2022, third-party data providers and traders signal flows have been resilient despite broad US sanctions. That’s because the Chinese have built a supply chain outside of western control, which includes dark fleet ships and yuan-denominated payments, supporting imports of more than 1 million barrels a day.
Many questions remain, including the state of Iran’s uranium stockpile and whether any ceasefire will lead to discussions about Tehran’s nuclear program. The Islamic Republic, which has denied it’s seeking an atomic weapon, has refused to give up the right to enrich uranium, a condition the US has insisted upon.
“And so what is going to happen is that Oman is not going to allow for a unilateral decision to just close that end completely again, like I pointed out, the Chinese had a lot of interest in terms of movements of goods and other services, or, eh, movements of goods more or less to the Chinese and other South Asian countries. And so they also have an interest in ensuring that the passage is not closed,” he said during a discussion on TV3 on Monday, June 23.
That’s what Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief Commodities Analyst at Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (SEB), said in an oil report sent to Rigzone by the SEB team on Monday. In the report, Schieldrop highlighted that Brent crossed the $80 per barrel line this morning but noted that it “quickly fell back, assigning limited probability for Iran choosing to close the Strait of Hormuz”.
Police in New York, Washington and Los Angeles increased patrols at religious institutions, diplomatic facilities and public spaces. Officials cited no immediate credible threats but highlighted the need for vigilance. The Department of Homeland Security said the Israel-Iran war has placed the US in a “heightened threat environment” through Sept. 22.
Trump, who is scheduled to attend a national security meeting in the Oval Office on Friday, has publicly mused for days about having the US increase the stakes by joining Israel’s strikes on Iran. His latest stance signals a step back after a run of tough rhetoric, including demands for residents of Tehran to evacuate, and his early departure from this week’s Group of Seven summit in Canada to return to Washington.