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U.S. crude production may decline in 2026 amid slowing global demand, S&P Global says

“U.S. oil production growth has been a dominant feature in the oil market since 2022,” said Burkhard. “A price-driven decline in U.S. production would be a pivot point for the oil market—and set conditions for a potential price recovery. But much will depend on the severity of an economic slowdown and the impact on demand growth beyond 2025.”