Hungary and Slovakia are currently getting their Russian natural gas supply via the TurkStream pipeline that runs under the Black Sea to Turkey and then on to Eastern Europe. According to one Bulgarian energy analyst from the progressive think-tank Center for the Study of Democracy, the existence of this pipeline can prolong the European Union’s reliance on Russian gas. Indeed, it has already increased Russian gas imports to Central and Southeastern Europe from some 30% back in 2021 to over 50% as of last year, Martin Vladimirov wrote in an op-ed for Reuters.
The European Union is preparing to impose up to €100 billion ($113 billion) in tariffs on US goods if trade talks fail, according to a new report by Bloomberg this morning.
The draft list of retaliatory measures will be circulated to member states as early as Wednesday, with a one-month consultation period before finalization.
The EU’s plan to fully cut off Russian gas imports by 2027 faces legal, logistical and political hurdles.
Although the bloc has slashed Russian gas from 45% of its supply in 2021 to 19% in 2024, fully severing ties is proving difficult. Long-term contracts with companies such as TotalEnergies and Naturgy, lasting into the 2030s, are a major obstacle. Brussels is weighing “force majeure” clauses to exit these deals, but legal experts caution that without sanctions, such moves could spark costly arbitration.
Russia accounted for 20 percent of gas imported by the EU via pipeline in the third quarter. Norway continued to be the EU’s top pipeline gas supplier with a share of 47 percent, followed by North Africa (16 percent). The United Kingdom was the EU’s fourth-biggest pipeline gas source accounting for 11 percent, while Azerbaijan came fifth with six percent.
The fact that the EU still buys so much gas from Russia is telling, and the story it tells should make U.S. LNG producers happy. Whatever regulations the EU adopts in the name of its planet-saving push, energy supply security will always come on top. The decision to go long-term on LNG is one key piece of evidence. More evidence comes from the regulation itself, and it suggests implementation might be challenging, to put it mildly.
A new US Department of Energy survey provides updated data on oil & natural gas production in the CaspianBasin. It shows that four regional states – Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan – collectively account for 3 percent of global energy production.
Europe’s biggest energy producers and traders warned the European Commission against introducing a gas price cap as a tool during times of crisis, after some officials raised the idea in recent months.
The United States has become the largest LNG exporter in the world in a few short years and it also became the biggest supplier to the European after 2022 and the suspension of most Russian pipeline flows. Before 2022, U.S. LNG exports to the continent averaged 15 million tons per year, but they jumped to 55 million tons in both 2022 and 2023.
The European Union and Mexico have agreed to a revamped free-trade agreement days before Trump begins a second term. Mexico, in particular, has been working to revamp the trade deal with the EU ahead of Trump’s inauguration as a way to show strength before the review of the US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement, known as USMCA. The U.S. is, by far, Mexico’s biggest trade partner, accounting for 83% of Mexico’s trade relationship. Trump has criticized the EU’s trade practices and said he would impose duties on exports by the bloc. He’s also said he’d impose 25% tariffs on goods from Mexico.
Prior to the decision by Baghdad, Syria was importing some ~120,000 barrels of Iraq crude daily. Meanwhile, supplies of crude oil from Iran have also ended following the news of the change in power in Syria. Fuel prices in Syria have skyrocketed due to acute shortages during the transitional period.