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How Turkey Could Thwart the EU’s Plan to Ban Russian Gas

Hungary and Slovakia are currently getting their Russian natural gas supply via the TurkStream pipeline that runs under the Black Sea to Turkey and then on to Eastern Europe. According to one Bulgarian energy analyst from the progressive think-tank Center for the Study of Democracy, the existence of this pipeline can prolong the European Union’s reliance on Russian gas. Indeed, it has already increased Russian gas imports to Central and Southeastern Europe from some 30% back in 2021 to over 50% as of last year, Martin Vladimirov wrote in an op-ed for Reuters.

EU plan to end Russian gas imports faces legal, geopolitical snags

The EU’s plan to fully cut off Russian gas imports by 2027 faces legal, logistical and political hurdles.

Although the bloc has slashed Russian gas from 45% of its supply in 2021 to 19% in 2024, fully severing ties is proving difficult. Long-term contracts with companies such as TotalEnergies and Naturgy, lasting into the 2030s, are a major obstacle. Brussels is weighing “force majeure” clauses to exit these deals, but legal experts caution that without sanctions, such moves could spark costly arbitration.

EU Still Relies on Russia for a Fifth of Its Gas Imports: Official Report

Russia accounted for 20 percent of gas imported by the EU via pipeline in the third quarter. Norway continued to be the EU’s top pipeline gas supplier with a share of 47 percent, followed by North Africa (16 percent). The United Kingdom was the EU’s fourth-biggest pipeline gas source accounting for 11 percent, while Azerbaijan came fifth with six percent.

EU Conflicting Gas Signals Jeopardize Supply Security

The fact that the EU still buys so much gas from Russia is telling, and the story it tells should make U.S. LNG producers happy. Whatever regulations the EU adopts in the name of its planet-saving push, energy supply security will always come on top. The decision to go long-term on LNG is one key piece of evidence. More evidence comes from the regulation itself, and it suggests implementation might be challenging, to put it mildly.

Trump Urges EU to Buy More U.S. LNG

The United States has become the largest LNG exporter in the world in a few short years and it also became the biggest supplier to the European after 2022 and the suspension of most Russian pipeline flows. Before 2022, U.S. LNG exports to the continent averaged 15 million tons per year, but they jumped to 55 million tons in both 2022 and 2023.

EU, Mexico Sign Trade Deal Ahead Of Trump Inauguration

The European Union and Mexico have agreed to a revamped free-trade agreement days before Trump begins a second term. Mexico, in particular, has been working to revamp the trade deal with the EU ahead of Trump’s inauguration as a way to show strength before the review of the US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement, known as USMCA. The U.S. is, by far, Mexico’s biggest trade partner, accounting for 83% of Mexico’s trade relationship. Trump has criticized the EU’s trade practices and said he would impose duties on exports by the bloc. He’s also said he’d impose 25% tariffs on goods from Mexico.