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S&P Global Says USA Crude Oil Production Now Expected to Decline in 2026

“Slowing global oil demand amid extreme uncertainty about the future of U.S. trade and a coming supply surplus are expected to hobble U.S. oil production growth later this year and could lead to an annual decline in output in 2026, according to a new analysis by S&P Global Commodity Insights,” the analysis piece – by Jim Burkhard, Vice President and Global Head of Crude Oil Research, Ian Stewart, Associate Director, and the S&P Global Commodity Insights Crude Oil Markets team – stated.

Oil Bulls Balk At Surprise Crude Oil Inventory Build

Earlier this week, the Department of Energy (DoE) reported that crude oil inventories in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) climbed 500,000 barrels to 399.6 million barrels in the week ending May 9. Inventory levels in the SPR are hundreds of millions shy of the levels in inventory prior to the SPR withdrawal that took place under the Biden Administration.

Crude Oil Inventory Gain Outshone By Product Draws

Earlier this week, the Department of Energy (DoE) reported that crude oil inventories in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) climbed 1 million barrels to 398.5 million barrels in the week ending April 25. Inventory levels in the SPR are hundreds of millions shy of the levels in inventory prior to the SPR withdrawal that took place under the Biden Administration.

USA Crude Oil Inventories Rise Week on Week

Total petroleum stocks – including crude oil, total motor gasoline, fuel ethanol, kerosene type jet fuel, distillate fuel oil, residual fuel oil, propane/propylene, and other oils – stood at 1.605 billion barrels on April 18, the report showed. Total petroleum stocks were down 0.3 million barrels week on week and up 5.9 million barrels year on year, the report revealed.

Crude Oil Gains 2% on Hopes of Tariff War Truce

Despite bullish inventory and mere hopes that the trade war will not escalate, global economic concerns look set to put significant limitations on how far crude could climb in this climate. The World Trade Organization (WTO) slashed its 2025 global trade growth forecast from +3.0% to -0.2%, citing escalating tariff risks. If the U.S. proceeds with reciprocal tariffs, global trade could shrink by as much as -1.5%, raising fears of reduced energy demand.

USA Crude Oil Inventories Increase Week on Week

Crude oil in the SPR stood at 397.0 million barrels on April 11, 396.7 million barrels on April 4, and 364.9 million barrels on April 12, 2024, the report revealed. Total petroleum stocks – including crude oil, total motor gasoline, fuel ethanol, kerosene type jet fuel, distillate fuel oil, residual fuel oil, propane/propylene, and other oils – stood at 1.605 billion barrels on April 11, the report highlighted. Total petroleum stocks were down 1.8 million barrels week on week and up 3.2 million barrels year on year, the report outlined.

Crude Oil Products Inventories Plummet But Oil Prices Still Down

Earlier this week, the Department of Energy (DoE) reported that crude oil inventories in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) climbed 0.3 million barrels again to 397 million barrels in the week ending April 11. Inventory levels in the SPR are hundreds of millions shy of the levels in inventory prior to the SPR withdrawal that took place under the Biden Administration.

EIA: US Crude Oil Inventories Climb 6.2 Million Barrels

Crude oil prices were trading up prior to the crude data release by the U.S. Energy Information Administration after the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported on Tuesday a build of 6.037 million barrels in U.S. crude oil inventories amid a small gasoline draw. The Brent benchmark was trading up 0.01% at 10:28 a.m. ET at $74.50—a roughly $1 per barrel increase over this same time last week. The WTI benchmark, meanwhile, was trading up 0.18% at $71.33—a roughly $1.60 per barrel rise over last week’s levels.