The bill for oil imports will rise if this happens. Russian crude—often sold at a discount to comparable grades—has come to account for a third of India’s total imports. Replacing this amount—over 1 million barrels daily—would likely push prices higher, adding to India’s total import bill. Crude oil imports account for 86% of domestic consumption.
The Petroleum Ministry laid out the plan this week, revealing that 101 wells are already slated for 2026, spread across Egypt’s main producing regions. The announcement didn’t specify where all that capital is coming from—never a minor detail—but the country has been cozying up to the majors again, signing new exploration deals with BP (BP.L) and Eni (ENI.MI) to scour the Mediterranean for the next Zohr-sized win.
Despite very strong refinery runs in August, China had 1 million barrels per day (bpd) of more crude available than processed at refineries, suggesting that the world’s top crude importer continues to buy more oil than it needs, with most of the surplus likely going to storage.
“Slowing global oil demand amid extreme uncertainty about the future of U.S. trade and a coming supply surplus are expected to hobble U.S. oil production growth later this year and could lead to an annual decline in output in 2026, according to a new analysis by S&P Global Commodity Insights,” the analysis piece – by Jim Burkhard, Vice President and Global Head of Crude Oil Research, Ian Stewart, Associate Director, and the S&P Global Commodity Insights Crude Oil Markets team – stated.
Earlier this week, the Department of Energy (DoE) reported that crude oil inventories in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) climbed 500,000 barrels to 399.6 million barrels in the week ending May 9. Inventory levels in the SPR are hundreds of millions shy of the levels in inventory prior to the SPR withdrawal that took place under the Biden Administration.
According to the AAA Fuel Prices website, the average price of regular gasoline in the U.S. is $3.145 per gallon and the average price of diesel in the country is $3.532 per gallon, as of May 9.
Earlier this week, the Department of Energy (DoE) reported that crude oil inventories in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) climbed 1 million barrels to 398.5 million barrels in the week ending April 25. Inventory levels in the SPR are hundreds of millions shy of the levels in inventory prior to the SPR withdrawal that took place under the Biden Administration.
Total petroleum stocks – including crude oil, total motor gasoline, fuel ethanol, kerosene type jet fuel, distillate fuel oil, residual fuel oil, propane/propylene, and other oils – stood at 1.605 billion barrels on April 18, the report showed. Total petroleum stocks were down 0.3 million barrels week on week and up 5.9 million barrels year on year, the report revealed.
Despite bullish inventory and mere hopes that the trade war will not escalate, global economic concerns look set to put significant limitations on how far crude could climb in this climate. The World Trade Organization (WTO) slashed its 2025 global trade growth forecast from +3.0% to -0.2%, citing escalating tariff risks. If the U.S. proceeds with reciprocal tariffs, global trade could shrink by as much as -1.5%, raising fears of reduced energy demand.
Crude oil in the SPR stood at 397.0 million barrels on April 11, 396.7 million barrels on April 4, and 364.9 million barrels on April 12, 2024, the report revealed. Total petroleum stocks – including crude oil, total motor gasoline, fuel ethanol, kerosene type jet fuel, distillate fuel oil, residual fuel oil, propane/propylene, and other oils – stood at 1.605 billion barrels on April 11, the report highlighted. Total petroleum stocks were down 1.8 million barrels week on week and up 3.2 million barrels year on year, the report outlined.