In an oil and gas report sent to Rigzone by the Macquarie team late Monday, Macquarie strategists, including Walt Chancellor, revealed that they are forecasting that U.S. crude inventories will be down by 2.4 million barrels for the week ending October 24.
“The new refinery in Nigeria and some issues in securing domestic supplies played a role for those unique flows earlier this year. But going forward, with the refinery now aiming to secure domestic flows, and probably looking at other crude grades, it is difficult to forecast if the volume flowing from the U.S. to Nigeria will persist,” agreed Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at UBS.
In a market increasingly governed by geopolitical tremors and macroeconomic mismatches, crude oil dipping below $65 per barrel seems like a gift to global consumers. But behind that price tag lies a slow-moving crisis for U.S. shale producers, many of whom are being forced to pull back on production, delay capital projects, and recalculate what sustainability means in a low-margin world.
Crude oil inventories in the United States saw an increase of 1.3 million barrels during the week ending May 16, according to new data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration released on Wednesday.
Trump is visiting the Middle East this week, hoping to strike deals with countries including Saudi Arabia. The kingdom — the de-facto leader of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies — has pushed the cartel to increase output to punish noncompliant members. A further boost expected at a June 1 meeting would add to concerns about a surplus.
Total petroleum stocks – including crude oil, total motor gasoline, fuel ethanol, kerosene type jet fuel, distillate fuel oil, residual fuel oil, propane/propylene, and other oils – stood at 1.605 billion barrels on April 18, the report highlighted. Total petroleum stocks were down 0.3 million barrels week on week and up 5.9 million barrels year on year, the report outlined.
Chinese demand also registered a decline in terms of LNG from state-run companies, with Bloomberg reporting that China re-exported over 280,000 tons of LNG in April to date, clocking in as the highest single-month re-export volume on record. The re-export volume represents nearly 8% of total imports for April.
West Texas Intermediate fell by 1.5% to settle near $62 a barrel, the lowest close in nearly two weeks. US equities also weakened amid a selloff in big tech and after a report found that Texas manufacturing activity had reached the lowest levels since May 2020. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC that while the US government is in contact with China, the onus is on Beijing to begin de-escalating the trade war with the US.
The U.S. stock markets enjoyed a broad rally on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 jumping nearly 2% a day after U.S. President Donald Trump announced that China tariffs will come down substantially, with another potential boost coming from a Wednesday Reuters report citing unnamed sources as saying talks to lead to significant tariff reductions.
West Texas Intermediate slid 2% to settle just above $68 a barrel, and global benchmark Brent retreated below $72. The group led by Saudi Arabia and Russia will go ahead with the increase of 138,000 barrels a day in April, a delegate told Bloomberg. The output revival had been postponed three times and follows pressure from US President Donald Trump to lower oil prices.