The signing of the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline deal by the presidents of Russia and China was perhaps the biggest news to come out of the two leaders’ meeting earlier this month. It was also the deal that may very well make the new global natural gas flow order permanent, potentially interfering with President Trump’s energy dominance ambitions.
The Republic of the Congo has signed a $23 billion hydrocarbon deal with Chinese oil and gas company Wing Wah for the integrated development of the Banga Kayo, Holmoni and Cayo permits, aiming to raise national oil output to 200,000 bpd by 2030.
Over the past couple of years, China’s oil industry has revealed a peculiar trend, with production maintaining an upward trajectory that seems to defy falling oil prices. Under normal circumstances, oil and gas producers tend to cut back output whenever prices fall too much in a bid to cut their losses. For instance, several U.S. shale producers are signaling production cuts due to low oil prices: back in May, Diamondback Energy (NASDAQ:FANG) chair and CEO Travis Stice warned that the Shale Patch had reached a “tipping point” with production set to decrease going forward amid low oil prices.
Fracking has boosted U.S. oil and gas production to record highs and significantly raised America’s oil and gas exports, giving the United States sway over global oil and LNG markets. Soaring U.S. oil production has challenged OPEC’s decades-long influence on global oil supply and prices, while American LNG exports have upended global natural gas trade, both in cargo flows and pricing mechanisms.
Beijing flagged its intention in March to force plants to produce less transport fuels and more petrochemicals, as electrification rapidly undermines traditional energy usage. Refining profits have only worsened since then, while Beijing’s efforts to combat involution across industries has taken on greater urgency due to persistent deflationary and trade pressures on the economy.
While China is the largest importer of Russian oil, it tends to take deliveries from the nation’s Far East. Yet so far in August, shipments of Urals – which loads from Baltic and Black Sea ports – were almost 75,000 barrels a day. That’s almost double the year-to-date average of about 40,000 barrels, according to Kpler. In contrast, exports to India sunk to no more than 400,000 barrels a day this month, compared with the average of 1.18 million.
Refinery rates went up to 14.85 million barrels daily last month, the report also said, which was an 8.9% increase from July 2024, but at the same time, it was a 2% decline from June 2025. The utilization rate at Chinese refineries, however, rose both on an annual and on a monthly basis, reinforcing the perception of an improvement in demand.
China has sped up new coal power plan approvals again. After a decline in new permits last year, these are once again on the rise, Greenpeace complained recently. China approved 11.29 GW of new coal power capacity in the first quarter of 2025. This pace of coal-fired generation capacity approvals already exceeds the 10 GW China approved in the first half of 2024.
The Common Seawater Supply Project (CSSP) is the key to unlock massive gains in oil output from Iraq. Consequently, control over the project is pivotal to gaining control over the country’s enormous oil and gas resources.
In a later statement, India’s foreign ministry said that oil import decisions were “based on market factors and done with the overall objective of ensuring the energy security of 1.4bn people of India”. A spokesperson for the ministry said that “It is therefore extremely unfortunate that the US should choose to impose additional tariffs on India for actions that several other countries are also taking in their own national interest. We reiterate that these actions are unfair, unjustified and unreasonable.”