The biggest European powers which are party to the so-called Iranian nuclear agreement of 2015, or the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) as it is officially known, launched in late August a 30-day process that would reinstate UN sanctions on Iran on September 27, if no deal is reached in the meantime.
Independent refiners are meanwhile due for a consolidation amid the overcapacity issues. China has the highest oil refining capacity in the world, at over 18.2 million barrels daily as of 2024. By next year, this will have grown to over 21 million barrels daily. This massive capacity, however, is unlikely to survive the next ten years without some trimming, Wood Mackenzie warned earlier this year. The consultancy said it expected 10% of China’s refineries to shut down before the end of 2034.
Despite very strong refinery runs in August, China had 1 million barrels per day (bpd) of more crude available than processed at refineries, suggesting that the world’s top crude importer continues to buy more oil than it needs, with most of the surplus likely going to storage.
President Trump reportedly called on the European Union to impose 100% tariffs on China and India if it wanted the United States to step up its own sanction pressure on Russia, as Brussels discusses its 19th package of sanctions against Moscow.
“So far, there has been no discussion of tariffs, either on India or on China,” one of the unnamed sources told Reuters, adding that Brussels was just wrapping up a trade deal with India and did not want to jeopardize that.
Renewables, oil and gas, mining, and manufacturing took the lion’s share of Chinese investments in Brazil in 2024, a new report by the Brazil-China Business Council, CEBC, showed this week.
The signing of the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline deal by the presidents of Russia and China was perhaps the biggest news to come out of the two leaders’ meeting earlier this month. It was also the deal that may very well make the new global natural gas flow order permanent, potentially interfering with President Trump’s energy dominance ambitions.
The Republic of the Congo has signed a $23 billion hydrocarbon deal with Chinese oil and gas company Wing Wah for the integrated development of the Banga Kayo, Holmoni and Cayo permits, aiming to raise national oil output to 200,000 bpd by 2030.
Over the past couple of years, China’s oil industry has revealed a peculiar trend, with production maintaining an upward trajectory that seems to defy falling oil prices. Under normal circumstances, oil and gas producers tend to cut back output whenever prices fall too much in a bid to cut their losses. For instance, several U.S. shale producers are signaling production cuts due to low oil prices: back in May, Diamondback Energy (NASDAQ:FANG) chair and CEO Travis Stice warned that the Shale Patch had reached a “tipping point” with production set to decrease going forward amid low oil prices.
Fracking has boosted U.S. oil and gas production to record highs and significantly raised America’s oil and gas exports, giving the United States sway over global oil and LNG markets. Soaring U.S. oil production has challenged OPEC’s decades-long influence on global oil supply and prices, while American LNG exports have upended global natural gas trade, both in cargo flows and pricing mechanisms.