U.S. liquefied natural gas exports are on track to become the nation’s second-largest net export industry by 2031, driven by accelerating investment, expanding export capacity and growing global demand, according to a new S&P Global Energy study.
The report projects U.S. LNG feedgas demand will double to 36 Bcfd over the next five years—25% higher than previous base-case forecasts—as new export projects come online. The United States, already the world’s largest LNG exporter, is expected to account for more than one-third of the global LNG market during that period.
S&P Global estimates more than $1 trillion will be invested across the U.S. LNG supply chain through 2040, supporting approximately 555,000 jobs annually and contributing $1.4 trillion to U.S. gross domestic product. The study also projects $2.9 trillion in business revenues, $206 billion in federal and state tax revenues and nearly $630 billion in labor income over the same period.
The updated outlook reflects increased investment following the lifting of the U.S. LNG permitting pause in early 2025, which has been followed by seven final investment decisions on new LNG projects, with additional projects expected to advance over the coming year.
“The profound growth of U.S. LNG is exceeding all expectations,” said Daniel Yergin, vice chairman of S&P Global and chair of the study. “The economic gains in terms of jobs, GDP and labor income are on track to surpass all prior expectations, while the abundance of U.S. gas resources means that domestic prices remain among the lowest in the world.”
Despite the projected increase in exports, S&P Global concluded the impact on U.S. natural gas prices would remain limited. The study forecasts average residential natural gas costs will increase by approximately 1.6% between 2026 and 2031, while Henry Hub prices remain among the world’s most competitive due to abundant domestic supply and an extensive pipeline network.
The report also warns that delaying recently sanctioned LNG export projects could tighten global LNG markets by 2031, increasing prices in Europe and Asia by as much as 50% and creating opportunities for competing suppliers to capture market share.
While natural gas resources remain abundant, S&P Global identified pipeline infrastructure as the primary constraint on continued domestic market growth, particularly in the U.S. Northeast, where additional takeaway capacity could reduce seasonal price volatility and improve regional supply reliability.