Global oil demand is set to grow by 1.38 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2026, OPEC said on Tuesday as it raised its forecast for next year by 100,000 bpd on the back of expected stronger economies in key oil-consuming regions.
In its closely-watched monthly report out of Tuesday, OPEC said that the upward revision for 2026 was “on the back of expected better economic performance in OECD America, OECD Europe, as well as the Middle East and Africa.”
The cartel left its demand growth estimate for this year unchanged at 1.29 million bpd, expecting global consumption to hit 106.36 million bpd in the fourth quarter.
For 2026, the estimate is that the world will consume an average of 106.52 million bpd of oil, up by 100,000 bpd compared to last month’s assessment.
While OPEC lifted the demand growth estimate for next year, it revised down the forecast of supply from producers outside the OPEC+ pact, by 100,000 bpd.
This year’s non-OPEC+ liquids production is set to grow by 800,000 bpd to average 54.0 million bpd, unchanged from last month’s assessment. The U.S., Brazil, Canada, and Argentina will lead output growth of OPEC’s rival supply this year.
U.S. growth will be 310,000 bpd this year—the biggest driver of non-OPEC+ oil production increases.
But next year, in a major shift in the past years, it will be Brazil that will lead annual production growth among non-OPEC+ producers, not the United States. Brazil’s annual production growth is estimated at 160,000 bpd in 2026, while the U.S. increase is seen at 130,000 bpd, according to OPEC’s estimates.
Overall, non-OPEC+ production is expected to grow by 600,000 bpd to average 54.7 million bpd in 2026—revised down by about 100,000 bpd from last month’s assessment. The main liquids production growth drivers are set to be Brazil, the U.S., Canada, and Argentina.
By Michael Kern for Oilprice.com