Seven OPEC+ members agreed Sunday to lift their combined oil output target by 188,000 barrels per day from July, but analysts say the increase may deliver little actual supply while the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked by the Iran conflict.
Saudi Arabia and Russia will each contribute 62,000 barrels per day of the increase, with the remaining volume split among Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman. The decision, taken in a virtual meeting, mirrors an identical increase the group approved for June, making this the second consecutive monthly hike of that size.
The announcement came days after the United Arab Emirates departed OPEC+, reducing the coalition’s membership and its collective weight in global markets.
Jorge Leon, analyst at Rystad Energy, said ahead of the decision that the increase “means very little while the Strait of Hormuz remains closed,” describing the quota as “more of a policy signal than a real supply boost.”
The seven core members had already raised their output quotas from April to June by almost 600,000 barrels per day, a response to the disruption in energy supplies caused by the Middle East conflict, which has driven global oil prices above the $100 per barrel mark. Brent crude settled at $108.17 on Friday, while US crude futures closed at $101.94 per barrel, both roughly 78% higher than their levels at the start of 2026.
The Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most critical oil transit chokepoint, has been significantly disrupted, forcing many Middle Eastern producers to scale back actual output despite the formal agreement to increase it.
The group extended its overproduction compensation period through December 2026, giving members that exceeded their quotas since January 2024 more time to make up the difference. The Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee will track compliance. Monthly meetings will continue, with the next session set for 5 July 2026.
The coalition left the door open to reversing course, stating the April 2023 voluntary cuts may be returned “in part or in full subject to evolving market conditions.”