U.S. offshore drilling contractor Noble Corporation is expecting a ramp-up in drilling demand for the floater fleet from late 2025 and 2026, which will spur further rig reactivations, as it perceives the oil and gas production from deepwater reservoirs as an important factor in the global security of energy supply.
With a backlog of $6.7 billion based on its report from September 2024 and a fleet of 13 jack-ups, primarily operating in the North Sea and Norway, along with 28 floaters, mostly based in the Americas, West Africa, and Asia Pacific, Noble sees several foundations for an extended upcycle in the offshore drilling market.
The company is convinced that deepwater production growth is “increasingly critical” to global energy supply, with offshore sanctioning activities interpreted to be scaling up significantly and exceeding prior decade highs. As the ultra-deepwater rig market utilization is greater than 90%, the U.S. offshore drilling giant believes there is limited sideline capacity with newbuilds being “prohibitively uneconomic.”
Noble’s expectations indicate that day rates and free cash flow are poised for continued expansion. When it comes to the global jack-up demand, the firm describes it as stable, despite Aramco’s suspensions, as a result of incremental activity contributions from non-traditional jack-up markets such as Argentina, Brazil, Poland, and Spain.
The rig owner explains that ultra harsh (CJ-70 class) utilization is supported by rigs working down-market outside Norway, as visible upside in the country is perceived to be limited before 2026. Noble uses Rystad Energy’s research to hammer home that deepwater spending of about $79 billion is anticipated to inflect around a 20% forecasted increase for 2026-27 compared to 2023-25 levels estimated at $66 billion.As a result, the rig owner explains that the open demand for floaters continues to build, indicating large pent-up backlog potential, given the 120 rig years of open demand across 73 opportunities, with the national oil company (NOC) share being 47%, international oil company (IOC) part at 39%, and exploration and production (E&P) of 14%. South America is calculated to account for 44% of this, West Africa 18%, Gulf of Mexico 11%, and the rest of the world 27%.
The global marketed floater fleet is estimated to be 93% contracted with 88% including seven-generation sideline capacity with significant reactivation costs and lead times, thus, Noble emphasizes that contracted demand has ranged between 145-150 during 2023-24, based on Petrodata. While the current visibility suggests flattish demand through H1 2025, the rig owner underlines that higher demand levels, expected from late 2025 and 2026, will call on additional seven-generation rig reactivations.
A few weeks ago, Wӓrtsilӓ Underwater Services finished a comprehensive thruster exchange on the Noble Voyager drillship with the project including inboard maintenance, special periodic survey (SPS), and underwater inspection in lieu of drydocking (UWILD). Noble Corporation’s 12,000-ft Ocean BlackRhino drillship recently spent time in Las Palmas, Canary Islands, to undergo upgrades. The rig was part of Diamond Offshore’s fleet until the merger with Noble Corporation was wrapped up with the latter taking over the former’s entire fleet to expand its assets to 41 rigs.
The drillship finished a development campaign in Senegal for Woodside Energy, where it worked for three years at the Sangomar field, ending the entire campaign with 3% non-productive time (NPT). Noble claims that the BlackRhino crews ran 2,265 screen joints (25.6 km) and 4,490 tubing joints (50.7 km) while also managing to transfer 170,000 barrels of mud.
The rig, alongside the Ocean BlackHawk drillship, drilled and completed 24 wells, wrapping up the Sangomar project ahead of schedule and enabling Woodside to achieve the first oil in Senegal earlier this year. The Ocean BlackRhino drillship went to Guinea-Bissau in late August 2024 to work for Apus Energia Guinea-Bissau. After it completes this job, the drillship is slated to kick off its new contract with Beacon Offshore Energy in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico.
Source:https://www.offshore-energy.biz