Ghana’s upstream oil and gas sector is entering a potential recovery phase after several years of declining production and investor uncertainty. The government has resolved outstanding disputes with upstream operators, extended key licences and introduced gas-pricing reforms aimed at improving project economics and strengthening domestic energy security.
Against this backdrop, the Petroleum Commission has confirmed approximately USD 3.5bn in new investment commitments across the Jubilee, TEN and Offshore Cape Three Points (OCTP) projects. The commitments, while still at the memorandum-of-understanding stage, could provide a significant boost to field development, oil production and domestic gas supply.
The first pillar of the investment programme is a USD 2bn commitment covering the Jubilee and TEN fields, involving Tullow Oil, Kosmos Energy, PetroSA and Ghana National Petroleum Corporation (GNPC). The programme is expected to fund additional wells and supporting infrastructure, helping sustain oil production while increasing associated gas output.
Tullow, operator of both fields, has secured licence extensions for Jubilee and TEN through 2040, providing the consortium with a longer investment horizon and greater visibility over capital recovery. A key component of the Jubilee agreement is an 18% reduction in the price of gas sold to the Ghanaian state. Government officials estimate that the adjustment could save approximately USD 300m over the life of the agreement. Lower gas costs are expected to reduce pressure on the power sector, improve the financial position of state-owned off-takers and support more reliable fuel supplies for gas-fired generation.
The investment push comes after a prolonged period of declining crude production. Data from the Public Interest and Accountability Committee (PIAC) show output falling from 71.44 million barrels in 2019 to 37.3 million barrels in 2025, marking six consecutive years of decline. Government officials, however, report that production has subsequently recovered to approximately 126,000 barrels per day in 2026, compared with around 90,000 barrels per day at the beginning of the year, with higher Jubilee production providing much of the uplift.
The second major investment commitment is focused on gas-led growth. The OCTP consortium of Eni, Vitol and GNPC has pledged approximately USD 1.5bn to expand gas production and develop the Eban-Akoma discoveries offshore Ghana. The discoveries were declared commercially viable in 2025 and are estimated to contain approximately 500–700 million barrels of oil equivalent in recoverable resources, according to company and government disclosures.
Government fiscal documents indicate that the combined US$3.5bn investment programme is expected to support additional drilling and increase gas exports towards 350 million standard cubic feet per day. At OCTP, the programme would expand production from the Sankofa-Gye Nyame hub while tying in Eban-Akoma, strengthening gas supplies to power generators and industrial users while creating additional opportunities for exports.
For Ghana, the significance extends beyond higher production. The government is positioning the investment programme as part of a broader effort to improve energy security, monetise offshore reserves and restore investor confidence in the upstream sector. The reforms are particularly important given the disputes and regulatory uncertainty that had constrained investment in recent years. With outstanding operator disputes now resolved, licence terms extended and changes to petroleum agreements under consideration, the government is seeking to create a more predictable environment for long-term capital deployment.
Parliament is expected to consider amendments to the Petroleum (Exploration and Production) Act, alongside changes to individual petroleum agreements. These reforms are likely to address issues including GNPC’s future participating interests, domestic gas pricing and the broader framework governing upstream investment.
The government’s approach represents a shift from managing production decline towards encouraging selective reinvestment in mature assets while developing new offshore resources. Earlier discussions between Petrobras and Ghana over the Keta Basin had also indicated renewed international interest in the country’s frontier acreage.
For institutional investors, Ghana’s upstream story is increasingly defined by three developments: dispute resolution, regulatory clarity and renewed capital spending. The USD 3.5bn pipeline provides a visible near-term investment programme across established producing assets and newer discoveries. The combination of licence extensions, gas-price reform and additional drilling could improve project economics while supporting domestic power generation and industrial demand.However, the commitments remain MOUs rather than final investment decisions. Their conversion into binding projects will depend on technical studies, financing, regulatory approvals and the passage of proposed petroleum-sector amendments. The key indicators for investors will therefore be whether the Jubilee–TEN and OCTP agreements reach final investment decision, whether the regulatory reforms provide durable contractual certainty, and whether the recent production recovery can be sustained as new wells and infrastructure come online. If those milestones are achieved, Ghana could move from a prolonged period of upstream decline into a more measured phase of production recovery, gas expansion and reserve monetisation.
Source: trendsnafrica.com