Brazil’s crude oil exports to the U.S. are facing an uncertain future as Washington prepares to impose sweeping 50% tariffs on Brazilian imports starting August 1—up from the current 10%. While it remains unclear whether crude oil will be included in the list, analysts and industry groups are already warning of major disruptions.
The U.S. is Brazil’s third-largest oil buyer, importing around 189,000 barrels per day (bpd) in Q1 2025, or 11% of Brazil’s total oil exports, according to data from ship-tracking firm Vortexa and Kpler. China and Europe remain the top destinations, importing 654,000 bpd and 446,000 bpd respectively.
The tariffs, threatened by President Donald Trump in response to what he calls “unfair criminal prosecution” of former Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro, could inflate the landed price of Brazilian grades like Tupi and Buzios from $70 to $105 per barrel—making them uncompetitive in the U.S. market, Argus estimates suggest.
According to Reuters, Brazil’s Finance Minister Fernando Haddad confirmed that the government is preparing relief measures for affected companies but ruled out tax exemptions. Ports and Airports Minister Silvio Costa Filho also hinted at financial support for Embraer, which relies heavily on U.S. exports.
Petrobras, Brazil’s largest oil producer, appears relatively insulated, with just 4% of its Q1 crude exports heading to the U.S., per its earnings report. But independent producers like Prio could be harder hit. Prio’s Peregrino crude—of which 30% of exports currently go to the U.S.—could be especially vulnerable. Prio recently acquired full control of the Peregrino field from Equinor.
Brazil’s Petroleum Institute (IBP) said it views Trump’s measure “with concern” and urged the government to engage diplomatically. BTG Pactual analysts told Reuters that while the tariffs could cause short-term disruption, they do not pose a “structural risk,” as Brazilian exporters can redirect flows to Asia or Europe.
Indeed, Vortexa and Kpler suggest that if U.S. tariffs hit crude, 180,000–200,000 bpd of Brazilian oil could be rerouted to Asia-Pacific and Europe. But analysts also warn that an influx of Brazilian barrels could pressure prices there—especially as seasonal demand wanes and OPEC+ unwinds production cuts.
While Petrobras says it will “seek the best alternative in any scenario,” political friction may complicate things. A May proposal from Brazil seeking dialogue with the White House has reportedly gone unanswered. President Lula has said Plan A remains ‘negotiation’—but has hinted at “reciprocity” if talks fail.
By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com