Author: intent

Guyana: the new oil centre of the world

On the northeastern tip of South America, there are three little countries stacked in a row; anomalies of empire whose imperial histories still have resonance today. Guyana, Suriname and French Guiana. One formerly of the British Empire; one formerly of the Dutch Empire; one still an overseas department of France and all speaking the language that their colonial masters left them. Of these, Guyana, formerly British Guyana and the only English-speaking country in South America, has been in the news lately following a referendum in Venezuela where President Maduro invited Venezuelans to decide if a large chunk of Guyana should, in fact, be Venezuelan. Given the vast oil riches off the coast of Guyana, the referendum unsurprisingly passed. Once the sabre-rattling verbal aggression died down, there was agreement that no one wanted to go to war and that the foreign ministers of each country would negotiate a solution over the next three months.

Oil Prices Poised to Bounce Back in 2024

Top U.S. banks forecast a median Brent price of $85 for 2024, citing demand growth and potential supply disruptions.
Goldman Sachs revised its forecast to $70-$90 per barrel, while Citigroup predicts an average price of $75, factoring in slower demand growth and higher U.S. output.
The global oil market outlook for 2024 is largely bearish, but increased demand, especially from Asia, could lead to higher prices.

Record-High U.S. Production Weighs on Natural Gas Prices

Record temperatures in Europe and North America extended the gas storage refill season, leading to high inventories.
Natural gas demand decreased due to warmer weather, an industrial slowdown in Europe, and record U.S. production and LNG exports.
Futures and options market winter premiums have diminished, contributing to a drop in Europe’s natural gas prices and bearish trends in the U.S. and Asian markets.

What Does 2024 Hold For China’s Economy And Oil Demand?

China’s stellar economic growth for many years pushed the prices of the major commodities it needed ever higher, almost single-handedly creating and sustaining the commodities supercycle over those years.
China’s economic growth target for 2023 was officially “around 5%”, which meant that it was almost certainly going to be attained on paper, regardless of the reality behind the figures.
One obvious sector of concern – among many others that are less so – is the property sector, which accounts for around a third of China’s entire GDP and about 65 percent of total household assets.