Energy secretary Ed Miliband has backed Labour’s commitment to net zero while the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) suggested last month that the sector was growing at a higher pace than other areas of the UK economy.
While both countries appear aligned on their strategic goals, several challenges persist. Chief among them is the unresolved dispute over the Iraq–Türkiye Pipeline (ITP), which has halted Iraqi oil exports to Türkiye for over two years due to diplomatic and financial disagreements. The ongoing dispute between Baghdad and the KRG over revenue sharing and control of oil resources adds further complexity. International oil and gas companies operating in the KRG region also withhold cooperation until outstanding fiscal and contractual issues are addressed.
On Monday morning, oil prices were recovering and traded up by about 1.5% following the weekend U.S. announcement that some electronics, including smartphones, would be exempted from the tariffs on China. Brent Crude prices traded at about $65 per barrel, while the U.S. benchmark, WTI Crude, was at just above $62 a barrel.
Last week, eight OPEC+ countries announced they would phase-out voluntary oil output cuts by ramping up output by 411,000 barrels per day in May–equivalent to three monthly increments. In other words, the Saudis are signaling they might be willing to give up their long-time role as OPEC’s swing producer in an attempt to take a tougher stance against countries that continue to violate the output pact, most notably Kazakhstan, the UAE and Iraq.
“While I do expect gas prices to continue trending lower, any abrupt change in the current tariff situation could eventually bring the decline to a halt. For now, the good news is that gas prices typically reach their yearly peak around April 10, so we may have already witnessed ‘peak pain’ at the pump for 2025. As refiners near the end of seasonal maintenance and supply begins to rise — and with the changeover to summer gasoline nearly complete — it’s increasingly likely that gas prices have already hit their high for the year,” De Haan continued.
The new Russian energy plan appears to contradict statements coming out of Moscow as early as September 2024, when the country’s deputy energy minister, Pavel Sorokin, said Russia was anticipating significant growth in global oil demand through 2050 and was prepared to meet that rising demand. At the time, Sorokin also stressed that Russia will not saturate the market unless necessary. The Energy Ministry forecasts global oil demand to grow by at least 5-7 million barrels per day, a 4.5%-5.5% increase through 2030, with continued growth of at least 5% by 2050.
The Equatorial Margin offshore Brazil, which includes Foz do Amazonas, Pará-Maranhão, and Barreirinhas basins, is estimated to hold large oil and gas reserves and is believed to share geology similar to that of Guyana’s offshore, where Exxon is finding billions of barrels of oil and has developed and is developing half a dozen projects. Petrobras is appealing Ibama’s decision to not grant drilling rights. However, this decision may spook potential candidates for the blocks, according to a local analyst.
At the time of writing, Brent crude was trading at just over $65 per barrel, with West Texas Intermediate at $61.71 per barrel, after on Friday the Trump administration announced a tariff exemption for certain electronics and semiconductors. Optimism wavered this week, however, as Washington launched investigations into pharmaceutical and semiconductor imports in what the media reported was part of setting the stage for tariffs on these two groups of products. President Trump himself said semiconductors were on the line for tariffs.
Taiwan was slapped with a 32% tariff, which has been halted for 90 days, although it had just made some big commitments to invest in the U.S., including in U.S. energy projects. Last month, Taiwan’s state-held oil and gas company CPC Corporation signed a letter of intent to invest in the $44-billion Alaska LNG export project and buy LNG from it as part of a move to bolster its gas supply and energy security.
The two countries this week signed an agreement at the 2025 Pakistan Minerals Investment Forum in Islamabad to jointly bid on 40 offshore blocks. A bidding round for the granting of exploration licenses for the blocks, located in the Makran and Indus basins, was announced by the Pakistan government in February.