All Eyes On India, Not China, For Future Oil Demand

For decades, China has been the leading driver of global oil demand growth thanks to an economy that maintained a blistering growth clip for a long stretch. China’s economy managed to expand at nearly 10% annually ever since Beijing embarked on economic reforms in 1978, ballooning from $1.2 trillion by the turn of the century to nearly $18 trillion in 2021. But as the law of large numbers dictates, that era of exemplary growth could be in the rearview mirror. Economic pundits have predicted that China’s growth rate will slow down to between 2 and 5 percent in the coming years thanks to a declining population and slowing productivity.

A Less Hawkish Fed Could Jumpstart The Oil Price Rally

In recent times, fears of a spillover in the conflict between Israel and Hamas, which could embroil Iran and its allies in the region, have offered considerable support to oil prices. Unfortunately for the bulls, the oil price momentum has fizzled out with the war risk premium that helped fuel an oil price rally in the early days of the Israel-Hamas war all but gone thanks to Israel’s ground incursion into Gaza proving to be less extensive than some investors expected.