OPEC has lifted its crude oil demand forecast for 2023, to 2.4 million barrels per day (bpd), according to the group’s latest Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) released on Thursday.
OPEC’s expectation for this year’s oil demand is an upward revision of 100,000 bpd from last month’s forecast.
Global oil demand next year is expected to grow by 2.2 million bpd “on the back of a continued rebound in Chinese economic activity, and firm growth in other non-OECD countries.”
Meanwhile, OPEC is expecting Non-OPEC liquids supply to grow by 1.4 million bpd this year and next—no change from last month’s MOMR outlook. The United States, Brazil, Norway, Canada, Kazakhstan, and Guyana are all expected to contribute to this supply growth, with Russia dragging down the increase on the other side with a slowdown.
OPEC cautioned, however, that there are still “uncertainties” surrounding US shale ou output, particularly with the prospect of unplanned maintenance this year. OPEC sees US liquids production growing next year by 700,000 bpd, mostly from the Permian, non-conventional NGLs, and the Gulf of Mexico.
To reach that growth, OPEC estimates that non-OPEC countries will invest $480 billion for upstream capex in 2024.
Demand for OPEC crude oil is expected to reach 29.4 million bpd this year—an upward revision of 100,000 bpd from last month’s report. Demand for OPEC crude will reach 30.2 million bpd next year, the report suggests.
OPEC left its 2023 global GDP growth forecast unchanged at 2.6% despite better-than-expected economic growth in the United States, Japan, Brazil, and Russia in H1, and “the trend of relatively higher growth in China and India appears well supported.” Dragging down OPEC’s estimates for global GDP growth is the Euro-zone, which saw a decline in economic growth courtesy of Germany. OPEC is estimating a 2.5% GDP growth next year, with China and India expected to grow of 4.8% and 5.9%, respectively.