Nigeria, OPEC’s largest producer in Africa, aims to significantly increase its oil production to up to 1.7 million barrels per day (bpd) by November 2023, hoping to win a higher quota in the OPEC+ agreement, Gabriel Tanimu Aduda, Permanent Secretary at Nigeria’s Ministry of Petroleum Resources, told Energy Intelligence on the sidelines of the OPEC+ seminar in Vienna this week.
Nigeria has consistently failed to produce to its quota in the OPEC+ agreement. The combination of pipeline vandalism and oil theft with a lack of investment in capacity has made Nigeria the biggest laggard in crude oil production in the OPEC+ alliance. Oil theft and pipeline vandalism have long plagued Nigeria’s upstream oil and gas industry, driving majors out of the country and often resulting in force majeure at the key crude oil export terminals.
Nigeria’s quota was 1.742 million bpd earlier this year, but due to its underproduction of more than 400,000 bpd, the output cap for Nigeria was lowered to 1.38 million bpd at the OPEC+ meeting in early June.
The required production level for Nigeria may be updated to equal the average production that can be achieved in 2024, as assessed by the three independent sources (IHS, Wood Mackenzie, and Rystad Energy) specialized in oil upstream by the next OPEC+ meeting to be held by the end of 2023, OPEC said.
Nigeria’s stated Production Plan in 2024 is 1.578 million bpd, subject to verification, and if verified, then the number will be reflected as required production for 2024, OPEC added.
Nigeria’s oil production is around 1 million bpd below its capacity. The government has cited a lack of investments, a shortage of funding sources because of the energy transition, and insecurity among the factors driving the situation.
“Currently, Nigeria has the technical allowable capacity to produce about 2.5 million barrels of oil per day. However, arising from the highlighted challenges, our current production hovers around 1.5 million barrels of oil and condensate per day,” Gbenga Komolafe, chief executive at the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), said in May.